Will tropical mountaintop plant species survive climate change? Identifying key knowledge gaps using species distribution modelling in Australia

Costion, Craig M.; Simpson, Lalita; Pert, Petina L.; Carlsen, Mónica M.; Kress, W. John; Crayn, Darren M.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.07.022

Cited by 58 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Such habitat degradation could imply the potential loss of diversity of native warm-adapted evergreen trees in the southern KP under continuous and accelerated climate change. Similarly, other studies have also reported habitat and biodiversity loss, as well as an increase in the extinction risk of warm-adapted plants due to habitat degradation as a result of climate change [4][5][6][9][10][11]. For example, research on the climate-related range shifts of evergreen broadleaved trees in the Taiwan-Japan archipelago yielded a similar result, i.e., the potential habitat degradations of evergreens within the distributional boundary under climate change [12].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 51%

Effects of Climate Change on the Climatic Niches of Warm-Adapted Evergreen Plants: Expansion or Contraction?

Koo

Park

Seo

2017

Forests

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Abstract:Climate change has modified the structure and functions of ecosystems, affecting human well-being. Evergreen plants in the warm-temperate ecosystems will lose climatically suitable habitats under climate change but have not drawn much scholarly interest. Therefore, the present research aimed to predict the future climatic niches of eight coastal warm-adapted evergreen trees under climate change to provide information for an effective management practice. For this purpose, we used the ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) weighted by the TSS value in modelling the climatic niches of those evergreen trees and then ensembled their future distributions predicted under 20 future climate scenarios. Except for Neolitsea sericea (True Skill Statistic (TSS) = 0.79), all projections for the current climatic niches of evergreens showed excellent predictive powers (TSS > 0.85). The results showed that the climatic niches of the four evergreens-Castanopsis cuspidata, Pittosporum tobira, Raphiolepis indica var. umbellate, and Eurya emarginata-would expand to the northern part of the Korean Peninsula (KP) under climate change, but the ones of the remaining four-Kadsura japonica, Neolitsea sericea, Ilex integra, and Dendropanax morbiferus-would shrink. While the climatic niches of Pittosporum tobira showed the rapidest and greatest expansion under climate change, Dendropanax morbiferus was predicted to experience the greatest loss of habitat. On the other hand, regardless of whether the future distributions of climatically suitable habitats would expand or contract, the highly suitable habitats of all species were predicted to decline under climate change. This may indicate that further climate change will degrade habitat suitability for all species within the distribution boundary and restrict continuous habitat expansions of expanding species or accelerate habitat loss of shrinking species. In addition, the future distributions of most coastal evergreens were found to be confined to coastal areas; therefore, sea-level rise would accelerate their habitat loss under climate change. The present study provides primary and practical knowledge for understanding climate-related coastal vegetation changes for future conservation planning, particularly on the Korean Peninsula.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 51%

Effects of Climate Change on the Climatic Niches of Warm-Adapted Evergreen Plants: Expansion or Contraction?

Koo

Park

Seo

2017

Forests

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“…; Costion et al. ; Gotelli and Stanton‐Geddes ). In agreement with previous field observations and SDM, which suggested that a warming climate will lead to migration of mountain species toward higher altitudes (e.g., Grabherr et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…; Costion et al. ). However, only a handful of studies have employed both phylogeographic and SDM approaches to elucidate the Quaternary history of high‐altitude herbaceous species on the QTP (e.g., Liang et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The Quaternary evolutionary history, potential distribution dynamics, and conservation implications for a Qinghai–Tibet Plateau endemic herbaceous perennial, Anisodus tanguticus (Solanaceae)

Wan

Feng

Jiang

et al. 2016

Ecology and Evolution

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Various hypotheses have been proposed about the Quaternary evolutionary history of plant species on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), yet only a handful of studies have considered both population genetics and ecological niche context. In this study, we proposed and compared climate refugia hypotheses based on the phylogeographic pattern of Anisodus tanguticus (three plastid DNA fragments and nuclear internal transcribed spacer regions from 32 populations) and present and past species distribution models (SDMs). We detected six plastid haplotypes in two well‐differentiated lineages. Although all haplotypes could be found in its western (sampling) area, only haplotypes from one lineage occurred in its eastern area. Meanwhile, most genetic variations existed between populations (FST = 0.822). The SDMs during the last glacial maximum and last interglacial periods showed range fragmentation in the western area and significant range contraction in the eastern area, respectively, in comparison with current potential distribution. This species may have undergone intraspecific divergence during the early Quaternary, which may have been caused by survival in different refugia during the earliest known glacial in the QTP, rather than geological isolation due to orogenesis events. Subsequently, climate oscillations during the Quaternary resulted in a dynamic distribution range for this species as well as the distribution pattern of its plastid haplotypes and nuclear genotypes. The interglacial periods may have had a greater effect on A. tanguticus than the glacial periods. Most importantly, neither genetic data nor SDM alone can fully reveal the climate refugia history of this species. We also discuss the conservation implications for this important Tibetan folk medicine plant in light of these findings and SDMs under future climate models. Together, our results underline the necessity to combine phylogeographic and SDM approaches in future investigations of the Quaternary evolutionary history of species in topographically complex areas, such as the QTP.

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“…Global climate variability is recognized as one of the main causes of changes in the spatial distribution of plants (Costion et al, 2015;Kelly & Goulden, 2008). One of the most susceptible ecosystems is the tropical forest, broadly defined as an area with tree canopy >5 m tall covering at least 10% of more than 0.5 ha surface and located between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn (FAO, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa

Bogawski

Damen

Nowak

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Forest undergrowth plants are tightly connected with the shady and humid conditions that occur under the canopy of tropical forests. However, projected climatic changes, such as decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, negatively affect understory environments by promoting light‐demanding and drought‐tolerant species. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of three selected forest undergrowth plants, Dracaena Vand. ex L. species, D. afromontana Mildbr., D. camerooniana Baker, and D. surculosa Lindl., simultaneously creating the most comprehensive location database for these species to date. A total of 1,223 herbarium records originating from tropical Africa and derived from 93 herbarium collections worldwide have been gathered, validated, and entered into a database. Species‐specific Maxent species distribution models (SDMs) based on 11 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were developed for the species. HadGEM2‐ES projections of bioclimatic variables in two contrasting representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were used to quantify the changes in future potential species distribution. D. afromontana is mostly sensitive to temperature in the wettest month, and its potential geographical range is predicted to decrease (up to −63.7% at RCP8.5). Optimum conditions for D. camerooniana are low diurnal temperature range (6–8°C) and precipitation in the wettest season exceeding 750 mm. The extent of this species will also decrease, but not as drastically as that of D. afromontana. D. surculosa prefers high precipitation in the coldest months. Its potential habitat area is predicted to increase in the future and to expand toward the east. This study developed SDMs and estimated current and future (year 2050) potential distributions of the forest undergrowth Dracaena species. D. afromontana, naturally associated with mountainous plant communities, was the most sensitive to predicted climate warming. In contrast, D. surculosa was predicted to extend its geographical range, regardless of the climate change scenario.

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Will tropical mountaintop plant species survive climate change? Identifying key knowledge gaps using species distribution modelling in Australia

Cited by 58 publications

References 58 publications

Effects of Climate Change on the Climatic Niches of Warm-Adapted Evergreen Plants: Expansion or Contraction?

Effects of Climate Change on the Climatic Niches of Warm-Adapted Evergreen Plants: Expansion or Contraction?

The Quaternary evolutionary history, potential distribution dynamics, and conservation implications for a Qinghai–Tibet Plateau endemic herbaceous perennial, Anisodus tanguticus (Solanaceae)

Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa

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