Will there be a third COVID-19 wave? A SVEIRD model-based study of India’s situation

Abstract

Since the first patient was detected in India in late February 2020, the SARS-CoV-II virus is playing havoc on India. After the first wave, India is now riding the second wave. As was in the case of European countries like Italy and the UK, the second wave is more contagious and at the time of writing this paper, the per day infection is as high as 400,000. The alarming thing is it is not uncommon that people are getting infected multiple times. On the other hand, mass vaccination has started step by step. There is also a growing danger of potential third wave is unavoidable, which can even infect kids and minors. In this situation, an estimation of the dynamics of SARS-CoV-II is necessary to combat the pandemic. We have used a modified SEIRD model that includes vaccination and repeat infection as well. We have studied India and 8 Indian states with varying SARS-CoV-II infections. We have shown that the COVID-19 wave will be repeated from time to time, but the intensity will slow down with time. In the most possible situation, our calculation shows COVID-19 will remain endemic for the foreseeable future unless we can increase our vaccination rate manifold.

K-Track-Covid: interactive web-based dashboard for analyzing geographical and temporal spread of COVID-19 in South Korea

“…The Simulation tab (Figure 3) stands out as a pivotal aspect of our dashboard, delivering simulations for projecting COVID-19 scenarios through shinyJS (23) for enhanced UI functionality. It includes a customization sidebar, allowing users to choose between the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) (24,25) and Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased (SVEIRD) (26,27) models for forecasting. This capability lets users explore future pandemic trends and outcomes based on User interface and features of the Regional Trend tab.…”

“…The SEIRD model enriches the traditional Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) framework by integrating 'exposed' and 'deceased' compartments, allowing for a more detailed understanding of disease progression (28). Expanding upon the SEIRD framework, the SVEIRD model introduces a 'vaccinated' compartment to capture the dynamics of vaccination within the population (26). This addition allows for the simulation of vaccination outcomes alongside natural disease progression, providing a comprehensive view of potential interventions.…”

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“…Experts are predicting 3 rd wave with a predilection to the unvaccinated individuals. 23 India, with a population of 130 crores, is facing difficulties in vaccinating its entire population by the expected period. Time has come for meticulous preparation for the upcoming adverse event.…”

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in COVISHIELD (AstraZeneca-SII) Vaccinated Healthcare Workers in a Tertiary Cancer Care Centre of North-East India

“…India is currently facing the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, even though the daily positivity rate is declining, but there are predictions for a possibility of a third wave. 1 India launched its first phase vaccination drive for the healthcare workers (HCWs) on 16th January 2021. Primarily the vaccination was started with COVISHEILD (Serum Institute India-AstraZeneca) and later, COVAXIN (Bharat biotech) was included in the vaccination drive.…”