Will SARS-CoV-2 Become Just Another Seasonal Coronavirus?

Abstract

The future prevalence and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain. Some emerging pathogens become avirulent as populations approach herd immunity. Although not all viruses follow this path, the fact that the seasonal coronaviruses are benign gives some hope. We develop a general mathematical model to predict when the interplay among three factors, correlation of severity in consecutive infections, population heterogeneity in susceptibility due to age, and reduced severity due to partial immunity, will promote avirulence as SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic. Each of these components has the potential to limit severe, high-shedding cases over time under the right circumstances, but in combination they can rapidly reduce the frequency of more severe and infectious manifestation of disease over a wide range of conditions. As more reinfections are captured in data over the next several years, these models will help to test if COVID-19 severity is beginning to attenuate in the ways our model predicts, and to predict the disease.

Impact of face masks and sunglasses on emotion recognition in South Koreans

“…Wearing a facial mask will not go out of fashion anytime soon, as COVID-19 is unlikely to cease and continues to stay with us as an endemic influenza [ 45 ]. Given this situation, the present line of research could be developed so that we can find ways in which people can adapt to restricted communication due to facial masks.…”

Pre COVID-19 molecular epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among children in Bangladesh

“…Many researchers believe that COVID-19 is likely to become a seasonal disease as populations achieve herd immunity [ 24 ]. This may impact and revise the seasonality and epidemiology of other respiratory pathogens like RSV [ 1 ].…”

“…Like all RNA viruses, RSV circulates in the community, causing febrile illness, and undergoes genetic variation that can lead to aggressive infections and potential outbreaks [ 18 ]. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic may become seasonal COVID-19 outbreaks with time, consequently impacting the epidemiology of respiratory pathogens worldwide [ 24 ]. For example, several southern and northern hemisphere countries have now reported delayed RSV peaks [ 25 ].…”

Surface-modified measles vaccines encoding oligomeric, fusion-stabilized SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoproteins bypass measles seropositivity, boosting neutralizing antibody responses to omicron and historical variants

“…We next evaluated the immunogenicity of the different vaccine candidates. To this end, 1x10 5 plaque-forming units of the various viruses were used to vaccinate 8- to 12-week-old IFNAR −/− -CD46Ge mice on days 0 and 21. Serum samples were then collected on days 21 (before boost) and 42 to assess the presence of S- and MeV-specific IgG antibodies by ELISA.…”

“…The pandemic has disrupted lives across the globe and triggered the deepest recession since World War II 2 . Even though highly immunogenic and efficacious COVID-19 vaccines have been deployed, the continual emergence of immune-evasive variants of SARS-CoV-2 combined with the waning efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines still represents a major global health challenge [3][4][5][6] .…”