Will plant movements keep up with climate change?

Corlett, Richard T.; Westcott, David A.

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.04.003

Cited by 649 publications

(571 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…In addition, we also need to consider range shifts of native species, increasing numbers of extreme events, environmental changes, and trophic mismatches, which can make it easier for IAS to invade. A recent review showed that most native plant species will not be able to track suitable climate conditions fast enough (Corlett & Westcott, 2013); however, the movements of alien species are facilitated by humans, and thus, alien species might move faster than native species. Overall, our results imply that current IAS are unlikely to stop their spread and many will be able to invade new areas following climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Bellard

Jeschke

Leroy

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

150

109

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Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Bellard

Jeschke

Leroy

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

150

109

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“…A decrease in range size resulting from an inability to keep up with climate change may thus be a more realistic scenario. The ability of a plant species to keep up with a shifting climate envelope is determined by the rate of climate change, the distance over which it is able to migrate per generation and its seed dispersal effectiveness (Corlett and Westcott 2013). Velocity of climate change algorithms have been used to estimate the likelihood of species to keep up with a shifting climate envelope.…”

Section: Sufficient Time To Migratementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Davis and Shaw 2001;Walther 2003;Jump and Peñuelas 2005;Aitken et al 2008;Anderson et al 2012;Corlett and Westcott 2013). For example, Aitken et al (2008) looked specifically at trees and Corlett and Westcott (2013) predominantly considered migrational responses across all taxa. Here, we provide an updated appraisal of the most recent literature on plant responses to contemporary climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constraints to and conservation implications for climate change adaptation in plants

2015

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Contemporary climate change is having widespread impacts on plant populations. Understanding how plants respond to this change is essential to our efforts to conserve them. The key climate responses of plant populations can be categorised into one of three types: migration, in situ adaptation, or extirpation. If populations are to avoid extirpation then migration and/or in situ adaptation is essential. In this review we first articulate the current and future constraints of plant populations, but trees in particular, to the different adaptation strategies (e.g. space availability, rate of change, habitat fragmentation, niche availability). Secondly, we assess the use of the most appropriate methods (e.g. natural environmental gradients, genome and transcriptome scans) for assessing and understanding adaptive responses and the capacity to adapt to future challenges. Thirdly, we discuss the best conservation approaches (e.g. assisted migration, biodiversity corridors, ex situ strategies) to help overcome adaptive constraints in plants. Our synthesis of plant, and particularly tree, responses and constraints to climate change adaptation, combined with the identification of conservation strategies designed to overcome constraints, will help deliver effective management actions to assist adaptation in the face of current and future climate change.

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“…Microrefugia exist because of buffering processes that decouple the site's microclimate from regional climate (Dobrowski, 2011;Morelli et al, 2016). Because microrefugia allow in situ persistence within the species' former range, they facilitate species responses to climate change via distribution dynamics, reducing the migration speeds necessary to track climatically suitable habitat (Corlett and Westcott, 2013). Numerous lines of evidence, including fossils, distribution models, and patterns of genetic diversity, support the importance of microrefugia during past climate change (Birks and Willis, 2008;Gavin et al, 2014;Stewart et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting microrefugia in semi-arid landscapes from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics

Andrew

Warrener

2017

Remote Sensing of Environment

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(in press). Detecting microrefugia in semi-arid landscapes from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics. Remote Sensing of Environment. Accepted 4 August 2017. DOI:https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.08.005 Disclaimer:The PDF document is a copy of the final version of this manuscript that was subsequently accepted by the journal for publication. The paper has been through peer review, but it has not been subject to any additional copy-editing or journal specific formatting (so will look different from the final version of record, which may be accessed following the DOI above depending on your access situation). 2 AbstractMicrorefugia are sites with stable, high quality habitat within landscapes characterized by dynamic environmental conditions driven by climate variability or ecological disturbances. There is considerable interest in the potential of microrefugia to provide climate change resilience to landscapes and to biodiversity conservation. Although attractive conceptually, there is yet little guidance on how to identify climate change microrefugia in order to study and protect them, and the data required to do so are often lacking. This study demonstrates how time series remote sensing, using all available Landsat images of a study area, can be used to directly detect microrefugia maintained by water subsidies in a semi-arid landscape in southwest Western Australia.Microrefugia were identified as pixels with abundant vegetation and consistent vegetation dynamics between wet and dry years. At every pixel, a harmonic model was fit to the intra-annual time series of vegetation index values compiled from the wettest years in the Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) archive. This model was then used to predict the phenological cycle of the driest years at that pixel. Candidate microrefugia were defined to be those pixels with (1) high vegetation activity in dry years and (2) highly predictable phenologies that are consistent regardless of the weather conditions experienced in a given year. Spatial relationships between candidate microrefugia and landscape features associated with elevated moisture availability (thought to drive climate microrefugia in these semi-arid landscapes) were assessed. The candidate microrefugia show great promise. Evaluations against high-resolution imagery reveal that candidate microrefugia most likely buffer against drought, although refugia from other disturbances, especially fire, were also detected. In contrast, spatial proxies of the physical features expected to maintain microrefugia failed to adequately represent the distribution of microrefugia across the landscape, likely due to data quality and the heterogeneity of microrefugia. Direct detection of microrefugia with Earth observation data is a promising solution in data limited regions. Landsat time series analyses are well suited to this application as they can characterize both the habitat quality and stability aspects of microrefugia.

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Will plant movements keep up with climate change?

Cited by 649 publications

References 87 publications

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Constraints to and conservation implications for climate change adaptation in plants

Detecting microrefugia in semi-arid landscapes from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics

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