Will I Stay Married?: Exploring Predictors of Expectations to Divorce in Unmarried Young Adults

Abstract

Expectations that one may eventually divorce may predict behavior in young adulthood and beyond, but studies that have looked at individuals’ assessments of their divorce likelihood have been limited. Guided by the expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation, we tested five categories of potential predictors of divorce expectations in a sample of 1,610 unmarried young adults from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition to Adulthood Study. Predictors were tested separately by gender and partnership status. Results suggested that some predictors mattered more for some groups than others, such as employment for single men or certainty of marriage for partnered women. Consistent with prior research, caregiver divorce was significantly associated with expectations to divorce but was only one of many factors found to predict these expectations. Socioeconomic factors and experiences and expectations of other relationships consistently predicted expectations. Expectations to divorce are multifaceted and complex.

Do Expectations of Divorce Predict Union Formation in the Transition to Adulthood?

“…Expectations are not necessarily the same as desires or aspirations (although some work on marital attitudes have suggested they are very close; Plotnick, ), and future work would do well to differentiate between expectations, aspirations, and overall values to more thoroughly understand the cognitions underpinning behavior. The current measures of expectations were also skewed; other studies have suggested that most people are optimistic toward avoiding divorce (Arocho & Purtell, ; Campbell, Wright, & Flores, ). Expectations of divorce are also only one part of expectations regarding marriage (Willoughby et al, ).…”

“…Expectations of success—in this case direct, personal evaluations of one's risk of future divorce—provided a counterpoint to expectations of marriage. Previous research on the predictors of expectations of divorce suggest that various background and personal factors theorized to predict expectations of success also predict expectations of divorce (Arocho & Purtell, ), and in this study, I continue this work by applying expectations to later behavior.…”

“…Religion predicts union formation type and timing (Eggebeen & Dew, ), and savings and student loans were included as a measure of financial well‐being, another predictor of union formation (Smock, Manning, & Porter, ). The measure of worry provided both an insight into respondents' readiness for marriage (Carroll et al, ) and pessimism, and the well‐being measure was meant to pick up on previously identified associations between well‐being and expectations of divorce (Arocho & Purtell, ).…”

“…Young adults often have high hopes for their futures, including imagined family lives (Anderson, ; Plotnick, ), but they also likely recognize early on that their lives will not be perfect. Those who have witnessed family instability or divorce think about their own potential for divorce (Boyer‐Pennington, Pennington, & Spink, ; Waller & Peters, ), and even those who have not witnessed divorce or dissolution firsthand recognize the possibility that their plans may not work out quite as they imagined (Arocho & Purtell, ). How are youth's pictures of the future, good and bad, associated with how they behave?…”

“…However, little attention has been paid to the less‐positive expectations youth may hold, especially their expectations to experience divorce. Considering the prevalence of divorce in the United States (Cherlin, ), it is perhaps not surprising that even unmarried young adults may consider themselves to be at risk of divorce in the future (Arocho & Purtell, ), and explicit expectations of divorce might also be associated with behaviors in young adulthood.…”