Will failed insurrection lead to terrorism in the United States?

Abstract

The following discussion outlines the attractions of a strategy of terrorism and its implications for political order. It also argues that a body of knowledge has been built up over time that provides a foundation for explaining current events. Research has shown that terrorism can be an effective substitute for the mobilization of large numbers when that mobilization is thwarted. Terrorism can sustain an illusion of power, provoke official over-reaction and community counter-mobilization, and deepen political polarization. Studies also suggest that if a broader movement dissolves, the followers who remain strengthen their commitment and become more inclined to violence. The future threat environment is most likely to be multidimensional, with multiple groups cooperating and competing along with individual actors who perceive themselves to be part of an ideological collectivity.