Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System?

Liao, Pu; Pamučar, Dragan

doi:10.3390/su12198172

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…As China's aging population continues to grow, it is expected that China will become a "super-aged society" by 2035 (4). This labor shortage and aging increase will directly aggravate the pension payment crisis (5). According to statistics, the accumulated amount of China's existing pension fund will be in deficit by the middle of the 21st century without any reform program (6).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How long can Chinese women work after retirement based on health level: Evidence from the CHARLS

Cheng

Fang

Zeng

2023

Front. Public Health

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ObjectiveTo further enhance the understanding of factors impacting female participation in the workforce based on health levels and to measure the excess work capacity of middle-aged and older female groups by residence and educational level.MethodsData of women aged 45–74 were accessed from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011, 2013, 2015, to 2018. The health status of women was comprehensively evaluated by single health variables and frailty index. A Probit model was used to measure the excess working capacity of women by region (rural/urban) and educational level, taking all women aged 45–49, rural women aged 45–49, and rural (illiterate) women in all age groups as the benchmark, respectively.ResultsThe excess capacity of all Chinese women aged 50–64 is 1.9 years, and that of women aged 50–74 is 5.1 years. The excess work capacity of women in urban and rural areas and with different educational levels is heterogeneous. The excess working capacity of urban women aged 50–64 is 6.1–7.8 years, and that of urban women aged 50–74 is 9.8–14.9 years. The excess working capacity of urban women aged 50–64 is about 6 times that of rural women. The excess work capacity of highly educated women was 3 times higher than that of illiterate women.ConclusionThe potential work capacity of Chinese women remains to be exploited, especially for urban and highly educated middle-aged and older women with better conditions of health, whose potential is more significant. A rational retirement policy for women and the progressive implementation of an equal retirement age for men and women will contribute to further advancement of gender equality and healthy aging in the workplace in China.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How long can Chinese women work after retirement based on health level: Evidence from the CHARLS

Cheng

Fang

Zeng

2023

Front. Public Health

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“…Referring to Liao [29], and taking the current moment as the zero moment, the income cash flow of the public account SA and individual account PA of CEBPS in period t(t ≥ 1) are…”

Section: Income Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Funeral allowance. Because of the different calculation methods of funeral subsidies in different regions, referring to Liao[29], we assumed that the one-time payment of funeral expenses and pension was 60% of the average social wage at the time of death.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Study on Fiscal Risk of China’s Employees Basic Pension System under Longevity Risk

Xiao

Pamučar

et al. 2021

Sustainability

Self Cite

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It is generally accepted that China’s Employees Basic Pension System (CEBPS) cannot cover its expenses. The government needs to fill the gap in income and expenditure with fiscal revenue to ensure sustainability of the system, which may cause it to take fiscal risk caused by the volatility of the fund gap. In this article, through the establishment of a prediction model for the income and expenditure of CEBPS with dynamic mortality, we aimed to measure the fiscal risk caused by longevity risk and provide policy basis for the government. We found that longevity risk leads to serious fiscal risk. The income and expenditure gap of CEBPS fluctuates greatly, and the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of fund balance in 2067 are 1.52 and 0.44 times the expected value, respectively. The knock-on effect of fiscal risk, measured by value-at-risk (VaR), is 1.15 times gross domestic product and 4.75 times state fiscal expenditure in 2020. In this article, we not only calculate the expected value like the other literatures but also discuss the volatility of the CEBPS fund gap.

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China’s Ageing Population: Policy Implications for Economic Growth

Kwong

2023

Quality of Life in Asia

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Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System?

Cited by 3 publications

References 17 publications

How long can Chinese women work after retirement based on health level: Evidence from the CHARLS

How long can Chinese women work after retirement based on health level: Evidence from the CHARLS

A Study on Fiscal Risk of China’s Employees Basic Pension System under Longevity Risk

China’s Ageing Population: Policy Implications for Economic Growth

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