2020
DOI: 10.3390/su12198172
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Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System?

Abstract: The sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System (CBPS) has been challenged by the ageing of the population and the decline in economic growth. This article establishes a Markov model for CBPS to examine whether the reforms, including ending the one-child policy and raising retirement the age, will shrink the negative income–expenditure gap. We find that the negative income–expenditure gap will destroy CBPS in the future in the absence of fiscal transfer or reform. Ending the one-child policy will increase t… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications
(3 citation statements)
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“…As China's aging population continues to grow, it is expected that China will become a "super-aged society" by 2035 (4). This labor shortage and aging increase will directly aggravate the pension payment crisis (5). According to statistics, the accumulated amount of China's existing pension fund will be in deficit by the middle of the 21st century without any reform program (6).…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As China's aging population continues to grow, it is expected that China will become a "super-aged society" by 2035 (4). This labor shortage and aging increase will directly aggravate the pension payment crisis (5). According to statistics, the accumulated amount of China's existing pension fund will be in deficit by the middle of the 21st century without any reform program (6).…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Referring to Liao [29], and taking the current moment as the zero moment, the income cash flow of the public account SA and individual account PA of CEBPS in period t(t ≥ 1) are…”
Section: Income Modelmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Funeral allowance. Because of the different calculation methods of funeral subsidies in different regions, referring to Liao[29], we assumed that the one-time payment of funeral expenses and pension was 60% of the average social wage at the time of death.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%