Will Current Protected Areas Harbour Refugia for Threatened Arctic Vegetation Types until 2050?

Abstract

Arctic vegetation types provide food and shelter for fauna, support livelihoods of Northern peoples, and are tightly linked to climate, permafrost soils, lakes, rivers, and the ocean through carbon, energy, water, and nutrient fluxes. Despite its significant role, a comprehensive understanding of climate change effects on Arctic vegetation is lacking. We compare the 2003 baseline with existing 2050 predictions of circumpolar Arctic vegetation type distributions and demonstrate that abundant vegetation types with a proclivity for expansion contribute most to current protected areas. Applying IUCN criteria, we categorize five out of the eight assessed vegetation types as threatened by 2050. Our analyses show that current protected areas are insufficient for the mitigation of climate-imposed threats to these Arctic vegetation types. Therefore, we located potential climate change refugia, areas where vegetation may remain unchanged, at least until 2050, providing the highest potential for safe-guarding threatened vegetation types. Our study provides an essential first step to assessing vegetation type vulnerability in the Arctic, but is based on predictions covering only 46% of Arctic land-scapes. The co-development of new protective measures by policymakers and indigenous peoples at a pan-Arctic scale requires more robust and spatially complete vegetation predictions. This is essential as increasing pressures from resource exploration and rapid infrastructure development complicate the road to a sustainable development of the rapidly thawing and greening Arctic.