Will climate change cause spatial mismatch between plants and their pollinators? A test using Andean cactus species

Gorostiague, Pablo; Sajama, Jesús; Ortega–Baes, Pablo

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.07.003

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…The few studies we identified for the Andes modelled interacting species separately and then assessed the spatial overlap of their distributions. For example, a study of the future projected distribution of 11 Argentinian cactus species and their pollinators found little mismatch between them under future warming (Gorostiague et al, 2018). Another study focusing on palaeodistributions of Calceolaria species in combination with their pollinators predicted floral traits divergence in Patagonia (Sosa-Pivatto et al, 2017).…”

Section: Species Distribution Models (Sdms)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another key ecological process, dispersal, has been incorporated into modelling studies by only considering two extreme scenarios: full (unlimited) or null (restricted) dispersal (e.g. Bambach et al, 2013; Gorostiague et al, 2018; Ramirez‐Villegas et al, 2014). In an unlimited dispersal scenario, projections of future distributions use all suitable new areas, whereas in a null‐dispersal scenario, future distributions are only projected in areas where the species currently exists.…”

Section: Future Vegetation Response Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities

Tovar

Carril

Gutiérrez

et al. 2022

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim: Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes.

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Section: Species Distribution Models (Sdms)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Future Vegetation Response Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities

Tovar

Carril

Gutiérrez

et al. 2022

Journal of Biogeography

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“…Several studies have investigated the potential impacts of variations in climate on animal-plant networks (insects and host species, plants and their pollinators; e.g. Gorostiague, Sajama, & Ortega-Baes, 2018;Schweiger, Settele, Kudrna, Klotz, & Kühn, 2008). However, fewer studies have dealt with changes in interspecific relationships among vertebrates, with the main exception represented by carnivorous mammals (e.g.…”

Section: Con Clus Ionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co‐occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild

Brambilla

Scridel

Bazzi

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole‐nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate that show a range of well‐understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N‐mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate‐sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.

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“…The potential effects of climate change on the ants and epiphytic plants include the homogenisation of their assemblages (Zotz & Bader, 2009; Diamond et al ., 2016) and reduction of their geographic ranges (e.g., Hsu et al ., 2012; Nowrouzi et al ., 2019), which could alter the range overlaps under climate change as is the case in other mutualisms (Gorostiague et al ., 2018) or antagonisms (Schweiger et al ., 2012). This coincides with our estimations of climate change, since at least 73% of the AG ants and epiphytes presented reduced suitable areas and also, consequently, range overlaps (a niche axis equally important and homologue to abundance; Suweis et al ., 2013) causing a reduction in nestedness (wNODF ≈ 50% under the pessimistic scenario).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structure and robustness of the Neotropical ant‐gardens network under climate change

Morales‐Linares

Flores‐Palacios

Corona-López

et al. 2021

Insect Conserv Diversity

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Knowing, predicting, and comparing the interactions among species of different assemblages allows the determination of both the structure and robustness of the ecological networks. However, this has been little studied for species assemblages with obligate associations across a wide geographic scale and under a global climate change context. We studied the Neotropical ant‐gardens (AGs), considered as a specialised mutualist system constituted of epiphytic plants that specifically inhabit nests of arboreal ants. We used the niche modelling and complex networks approaches to infer the interactions (range overlaps) between the ants and epiphytes that comprise the AGs and thus constructed AG quantitative networks for the current time and future scenarios of climate change. Also, we compared the structure (nestedness and modularity) and specialisation of the AG network with other ecological networks, and we evaluated their robustness through the simulated extinction of species. The AG network was formed by six ant species and 16 epiphyte species, generally of wide distribution. This low species number coincided with specialised networks, but the structure was more similar to that of the facultative networks, since it presented high nestedness and low modularity and specialisation. The network structure was maintained under the climate change scenarios, which also coincides with its high robustness in the face of the extinction of species. The AGs are a specialised system of wide distribution, but ant–epiphyte interactions are generalist, suggesting that the Neotropical AG network is cohesive and robust in the face of global perturbations.

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Will climate change cause spatial mismatch between plants and their pollinators? A test using Andean cactus species

Cited by 14 publications

References 52 publications

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities

Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co‐occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild

Structure and robustness of the Neotropical ant‐gardens network under climate change

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