Will China's fertilizer use continue to decline? Evidence from LMDI analysis based on crops, regions and fertilizer types

Ji, Yuanmeng; Liu, Huajun; Yin, Shi

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0237234

Cited by 30 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…Lastly, the observed tradeoffs between grain yield and N leaching under high N rates underscore the need for more efficient use of N inputs in order to meet growing cereal demand and combat the trend of increasing global N consumption in agriculture (Bodirsky et (Bauwe et al 2020), where uncontrollable factors of weather and precipitation regulate N losses more than management practices or soil properties. Given the urgent need to decrease the environmental footprint of food production, local and national plans are being developed to reduce nutrient losses as a key pillar of agricultural sustainability, including in the European Union (EU Commission 1991Commission , 2000, China (Ji et al 2020) and the U.S. (USDA 2021). Early adoption of policies in Europe has successfully reduced discharges of N loads in the coasts of the Netherlands (Fraters et al 2021) or the Baltic Sea (Iho et al 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting nitrate leaching loss in temperate rainfed cereal crops: relative importance of management and environmental drivers

Tamagno

Eagle

McLellan

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Nitrate (NO3) leaching from agriculture represents the primary source of groundwater contamination and freshwater ecosystem degradation. At the field level, NO3 leaching is highly variable due to interactions among soil, weather and crop management factors, but the relative effects of these drivers have not been quantified on a global scale. Using a global database of 82 field studies in temperate rainfed cereal crops with 961 observations, our objectives were to (a) quantify the relative importance of environmental and management variables to identify key leverage points for NO3 mitigation and (b) determine associated changes in crop productivity and potential tradeoffs for high and low NO3 loss scenarios. Machine learning algorithms (XGboost) and feature importance analysis showed that the amount and intensity of rainfall explained the most variability in NO3 leaching (up to 24 kg N ha−1), followed by nitrogen (N) fertilizer rate and crop N removal. In contrast, other soil and management variables such as soil texture, crop type, tillage and N source, timing and placement had less importance. To reduce N losses from global agriculture under changing weather and climatic conditions, these results highlight the need for better targeting and increased adoption of science-based, locally adapted management practices for improving N use efficiency. Future policy discussions should support this transition through different instruments while also promoting more advanced weather prediction analytics, especially in areas susceptible to extreme climatic variation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting nitrate leaching loss in temperate rainfed cereal crops: relative importance of management and environmental drivers

Tamagno

Eagle

McLellan

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…As China became the world's largest producer and consumer of P fertilizers, the Ministry of Agriculture of China implemented the Action Plan for the Zero Increase of Fertilizer Use by 2020. Since enacted in 2015, fertilizer use has decreased and projections expect the trend will continue (Ji et al, 2020). To do so while meeting P demands, Shen et al (2019) present a conceptual model to systematically address sustainable P management in the upstream and downstream sectors of agriculture from mineral extraction to food consumption which calls upon strong environmental protection and P resources management policies, as well as strong agricultural science and technology innovation and service policies.…”

Section: Challenge Identification and Niche Opportunitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A transition management framework to stimulate a circular phosphorus system

Peterson

Baker

Aggarwal

et al. 2021

Environ Dev Sustain

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As the global population is projected to increase by two billion people by 2050, so will the demand for phosphorus (P), an essential nutrient for all living organisms and a major driver of eutrophication. To sustainably meet these challenges, we apply the conceptual framework of transition management (TM) to demonstrate how the trajectory of the current linear P use system could be strategically shifted toward a more circular P system. We present US case studies to examine P transitions management in intensive agriculture, wastewater disposal, and food waste management. Our goal is twofold. By first understanding past transitions in P management in the USA, we can build upon these insights for future management. This can then be applied to other global regions such as developing countries to bypass stages of transition as they intensify agriculture, incorporate sewers into cities, and expand waste management, to avoid becoming entrenched in unsustainable P management. We suggest how spaces for experimentation and collaboration can be created, how and which actor networks can be mobilized, and what action strategies and policies can be recommended to accelerate their transition to P sustainability. Our case studies show that while substantial improvements have been made, the transition toward a circular economy of P is far from complete. Our findings point to the value of utilizing TM for future progress in the US Development of TM frameworks for managing P in other regions of the world may enable them to achieve sustainable P development faster and more effectively than the USA.

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“…1). After 2015, fertilizer N consumption in East Asia started declining because China, the major fertilizer N consuming country, recognized the seriousness of the overuse of fertilizers and introduced the action plan for zero growth of fertilizer use [6]. The changes in fertilizer N consumption patterns in different parts of the world have discernible impacts on nitrate pollution of ground and surface water bodies in different regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertilizers and nitrate pollution of surface and ground water: an increasingly pervasive global problem

2021

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Nitrate pollution of ground and surface water bodies all over the world is generally linked with continually increasing global fertilizer nitrogen (N) use. But after 1990, with more fertilizer N consumption in developing countries especially in East and South Asia than in the industrialized nations in North America and Europe, nitrate pollution of freshwaters is now increasingly becoming a pervasive global problem. In this review it has been attempted to review the research information generated during the last two decades from all over the world on different aspects of nitrate pollution of natural water bodies. It is now evident that not more than 50% of the fertilizer N is directly used by the crops to which it is applied. While a small portion may directly leach down and may reach ground and surface water bodies, a large proportion ends up in the soil organic N pool from where N is mineralized and is taken up by plants and/or lost via leaching during several decades. Present trends of nitrate pollution of freshwaters, therefore, reflect legacies of current and past applications of fertilizers and manures. Tools such as simulation models and the natural variation in the stable isotopes of N and oxygen are now being extensively used to study the contribution of fertilizers and other sources to nitrate enrichment of freshwaters. Impacts of agricultural stewardship measures are being assessed and nitrate enrichment of water bodies is being managed using modern digital models and frameworks. Improved water and fertilizer management in agroecosystems can reduce the contribution of fertilizers to nitrate pollution of water bodies but a host of factors determine the magnitude. Future research needs are also considered.

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Will China's fertilizer use continue to decline? Evidence from LMDI analysis based on crops, regions and fertilizer types

Cited by 30 publications

References 49 publications

Predicting nitrate leaching loss in temperate rainfed cereal crops: relative importance of management and environmental drivers

Predicting nitrate leaching loss in temperate rainfed cereal crops: relative importance of management and environmental drivers

A transition management framework to stimulate a circular phosphorus system

Fertilizers and nitrate pollution of surface and ground water: an increasingly pervasive global problem

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