Will All Americans Become Overweight or Obese? Estimating the Progression and Cost of the US Obesity Epidemic

Abstract

We projected future prevalence and BMI distribution based on national survey data (National Health and Nutrition Examination Study) collected between 1970s and 2004. Future obesity‐related health‐care costs for adults were estimated using projected prevalence, Census population projections, and published national estimates of per capita excess health‐care costs of obesity/overweight. The objective was to illustrate potential burden of obesity prevalence and health‐care costs of obesity and overweight in the United States that would occur if current trends continue. Overweight and obesity prevalence have increased steadily among all US population groups, but with notable differences between groups in annual increase rates. The increase (percentage points) in obesity and overweight in adults was faster than in children (0.77 vs. 0.46–0.49), and in women than in men (0.91 vs. 0.65). If these trends continue, by 2030, 86.3% adults will be overweight or obese; and 51.1%, obese. Black women (96.9%) and Mexican‐American men (91.1%) would be the most affected. By 2048, all American adults would become overweight or obese, while black women will reach that state by 2034. In children, the prevalence of overweight (BMI ≥ 95th percentile, 30%) will nearly double by 2030. Total health‐care costs attributable to obesity/overweight would double every decade to 860.7–956.9 billion US dollars by 2030, accounting for 16–18% of total US health‐care costs. We continue to move away from the Healthy People 2010 objectives. Timely, dramatic, and effective development and implementation of corrective programs/policies are needed to avoid the otherwise inevitable health and societal consequences implied by our projections.

Genetic variation in taste perception: does it have a role in healthy eating?

“…6% (1) , while in adults the prevalence is 61 % (2) . These statistics reflect the current situation in the UK and most parts of Europe (3) , and are approximately 5% behind levels in the USA (2) , where the prevalence is predicted to reach almost 90 % by 2030 (4) . Obesity has been linked, among others, to increased risk of heart disease, cancer and depression (5) , with an estimated annual cost of E70 million to the Irish health service (1) ; between £2 .…”

A mass phenomenon: The social evolution of obesity

“…Since then, the share of overweight adults rose to 64.7 in the year 2008 and the share of obese adults rose to 34.3 (Ogden and Carroll, 2010). If these trends continue, by 2030, 86 percent are predicted to be overweight and 51 percent to be obese (Wang et al, 2008). 1 The phenomenon of increasing waistlines is particularly prevalent in the US but, in principle, observed globally (OECD, 2010, WHO, 2011.…”

Patterns of weight change and progression to overweight and obesity differ in men and women: implications for research and interventions

“…Preventive intervention strategies for overweight and obesity need to consider age-and sex-specific patterns of changes in anthropometric measures. The prevalence of obesity is estimated to have doubled globally over the past three decades and is projected to further double globally and increase 1?5-fold in the USA by 2030 (2,4,5) . The prevalence of overweight in the USA, which was relatively stable over the same period, is expected to increase minimally (1 %) (3,5) .…”