Will Adaptation Delay the Transition to Clean Energy Systems? An Analysis with AD-MERGE

Abstract

Climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenges facing our planet in the foreseeable future, yet, despite international environmental agreements, global GHG emissions are still increasing. In this context, adaptation measures can play an important role in reducing climate impacts. These measures involve adjustments to economic or social structures to limit the impact of climate change without limiting climate change itself. To assess the interplay of adaptation and mitigation, we develop AD-MERGE, an integrated assessment model that includes both reactive (‘flow’) and proactive (‘stock’) adaptation strategies as well as a range of mitigation (energy) technologies. We find that applying adaptation optimally delays but does not prevent the transition to clean energy systems (carbon capture and sequestration systems, nuclear, and renewables). Moreover, applying both adaptation and mitigation is more effective than using just one.

Games with Adaptation and Mitigation

“…Indeed, the output, emission, adaptation, and mitigation efforts (in both competition and cooperation) increase with the country's productivity, and this increase is faster with a more effective mitigation. This outcome analytically confirms the recent simulation result of the integrated assessment model AD-MERGE [8] that using both adaptation and mitigation is more effective than using just one. In other words, there is a synergy between adaptation and mitigation, even in the onecountry case.…”

“…On the other side, the one-country model (8) is a special case of the game (4) at n = 1. Therefore, the solution (xN, yN, zN) to Equation (4) coincides with the solution (x1, y1, z1) to Equation (8). It justifies the formulas (7).…”

“…Let us consider the cooperative optimization problem (5). Substituting Equation 6and xi = xC, yi = yC, zi = zC, i = 1, …, n to Equation (5), we obtain , i.e., the solution (xC, yC, zC) coincides with the solution of the one-country model (8) with the modified parameter B = Bw = Bn 2 . On the other side, the one-country model (8) is a special case of the game (4) at n = 1.…”

“…Accurate assessment of effective environmental policies and actions has been a subject of intensive research for the last forty years. It includes analytic models [2][3][4][5] and computer simulation methods, known as the integrated assessment models [6][7][8]. This paper contributes to analytic modeling of adaptation and mitigation activities in the competitive world.…”

Mapping emergent public engagement in societal transitions: a scoping review

“…Energy modelling papers, which feature strongly in this sphere, make use of aggregate population representations to speak of specific collectives. These aggregate population representations are used to extrapolate long term trends with regard energy consumption and demand, population growth, willingness to pay and economic impacts [ 56 , 57 , 60 , 62 , 64 , 67 , 68 ]. The Economic and Social Research Institute review of Irish energy policy [ 57 ] for instance, makes use of this form of collective representation to consider economic impacts of energy policy to the Irish consumer, while Devaney and Henchion [ 67 ] consider consumer acceptance and demand, in the development of the bioeconomy and related supply chains in Ireland.…”