Wildfires: Australia needs national monitoring agency

Bowman, David M. J. S.; Williamson, Grant J.; Yebra, Marta; Lizundia-Loiola, Joshua; Pettinari, M. Lucrecia; Shah, Sami; Bradstock, Ross A.; Chuvieco, Emilio

doi:10.1038/d41586-020-02306-4

Cited by 97 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The scale of the Black Summer fires truly warrants the epithet of “megafire”, being most likely historically unprecedented given the geographical range of the fires and area of Eucalyptus burnt (Bowman et al, 2020). The fires were associated with an extreme and prolonged drought, and this is likely an expression of anthropogenic climate change.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Australia is a notoriously flammable continent, with up to 50 million ha burning annual (Roy, Boschetti, Justice, & Ju, 2008) spanning tropical savannas in northern Australia (c. 11° S), arid Triodia grasslands in central Australia and mesic temperate forests in southern Australia and Tasmania (44° S) (Murphy et al, 2013). The Black Summer bushfires were centred on Eucalyptus forests and woodlands in eastern Australia, and concentrated in the state of New South Wales (NSW) (Bowman et al, 2020). The fires burned 7.2 Mha, some 42.6% of the total Australian coverage of this vegetation type, within a climate enveloped by >700 mm MAP and < 19°C MAT (Figure 1).…”

Section: The Australian Black Summer Bushfiresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Black Summer Bushfires occurred during a historically unprecedented prolonged drought, associated with surface temperatures in the Indian and Pacific Oceans that affected rain bearing winds, resulting in a 30‐year low in leaf litter dryness in Eucalyptus forests on the Australian east coast (Boer, de Dios, & Bradstock, 2020; Nolan et al, 2020). Typical of extreme droughts, the area burnt in arid regions was at or below historical averages, because these areas only support large fires during pluvial events (Figure 2) (Bowman et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Australian Black Summer Bushfiresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Over the Austral summer of 2019/20, there was a prolonged fire season that led to geographically enormous Australian wildfires, that were concentrated in Eucalyptus forests, dubbed locally as the “Black Summer Bushfires” (Bowman et al, 2020). There is concern these fires were driven by anthropogenic climate change (van Oldenborgh et al, 2020) and that the increased frequency of wildfires has the potential to reduce the carbon storage capacity of forests, exacerbating climate change (Bowman, Murphy, et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Australian forests, megafires and the risk of dwindling carbon stocks

Bowman

Williamson

Price

et al. 2020

Plant Cell & Environment

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Over the Austral spring and summer of 2019/20 > 7 million ha of Eucalyptus forest and woodland, including some of Australia's most carbon dense ecosystems, were burnt on the east coast of Australia. We estimated bootstrapped mean CO2 emissions of c. 0.67 Pg, with other available estimates ranging from 0.55 to 0.85 Pg. Eucalyptus forests are renowned for their ability to resist and recover from wildfire so it would be expected that emitted CO2 will be reabsorbed. The combination of drought and frequent fires is likely reducing the capacity to recover from the fire so future Australian forests may store less carbon. Broadscale prescribed burning is a widely promoted approach to reduce uncontrolled wildfires, yet the benefits for the management of carbon stores are controversial. Prescribed burning can reduce carbon losses from subsequent wildfire, yet the “carbon costs” of it may equal or outweigh the “carbon benefits” in reduced wildfire emissions. Likewise, mechanical thinning of vegetation to reduce fuel loads also carries heavy carbon costs with uncertain carbon benefits. Research involving empirical measurements, modelling and a mix of large‐scale management intervention is urgently required to determine what interventions can maximise carbon storage in the face of climate change‐driven fires.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Australian Black Summer Bushfiresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Australian Black Summer Bushfiresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Australian forests, megafires and the risk of dwindling carbon stocks

Bowman

Williamson

Price

et al. 2020

Plant Cell & Environment

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“…Our study reveals that socio-economic disadvantage of communities are strong determinants of disaster exposure; hence, they should also be taken into careful consideration when developing strategies to reduce disaster risks. Additionally, as noted by others (Bowman et al 2020), the spatial mapping of wild re extent, wild re proximity to settlements in a national database is another important way to improve wild re prevention and planning.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Do Fires Discriminate? Socio-Economic Disadvantage, Wildfire Hazard Exposure and the Australian 2019–20 ‘Black Summer’ Fires

Akter

Grafton

2021

Preprint

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We examine the relationship between socio-economic disadvantage and exposure to environmental hazard with data from the catastrophic 2019–2020 Australian wildfires (Black Summer) that burnt at least 19 million hectares, thousands of buildings and was responsible for the deaths of 34 people and more than one billion animals. Combining data from the National Indicative Aggregated Fire Extent (NIAFE) and 2016 Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), we estimate the correlation between wildfire hazard exposure and an index of community-level socio-economic disadvantage. Wildfire hazard exposure is measured as the interaction between the percentage of area burnt and proximity of the fire to settlements. The results reveal a significant positive relationship between fire hazard exposure and socio-economic disadvantage, such that the most socio-economically disadvantaged communities bore a disproportionately higher hazard exposure in the Black Summer than relatively advantaged communities. Our spatial analysis shows that the socio-economic disadvantage and wildfire hazard exposure relationship exists in inner regional, outer regional and remote areas of New South Wales and Victoria, the two worst-hit states of the Black Summer catastrophe. Our spatial analysis also finds that wildfire hazard exposure, even within a small geographical area, can vary substantially depending on the socio-economic profiles of communities. A possible explanation for our findings is resource gaps for fire suppression and hazard reduction that favours communities with a greater level of socio-economic advantage.

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Wildfires and global change

Pausas

Keeley

2021

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

231

114

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No single factor produces wildfires; rather, they occur when fire thresholds (ignitions, fuels, and drought) are crossed. Anomalous weather events may lower these thresholds and thereby enhance the likelihood and spread of wildfires. Climate change increases the frequency with which some of these thresholds are crossed, extending the duration of the fire season and increasing the frequency of dry years. However, climate‐related factors do not explain all of the complexity of global fire‐regime changes, as altered ignition patterns (eg human behavior) and fuel structures (eg land‐use changes, fire suppression, drought‐induced dieback, fragmentation) are extremely important. When the thresholds are crossed, the size of a fire will largely depend on the duration of the fire weather and the extent of the available area with continuous fuels in the landscape.

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Wildfires: Australia needs national monitoring agency

Cited by 97 publications

References 14 publications

Australian forests, megafires and the risk of dwindling carbon stocks

Australian forests, megafires and the risk of dwindling carbon stocks

Do Fires Discriminate? Socio-Economic Disadvantage, Wildfire Hazard Exposure and the Australian 2019–20 ‘Black Summer’ Fires

Wildfires and global change

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