Wildfire Risk Levels at the Local Scale: Assessing the Relative Influence of Hazard, Exposure, and Social Vulnerability

Abstract

Wildfire risk assessment provides important tools to fire management, by analysing and aggregating information regarding multiple, interactive dimensions. The three main risk dimensions hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the latter considered in its social dimension, were quantified separately at the local scale for 972 civil parishes in central mainland Portugal and integrated into a wildfire risk index. The importance of each component in the level of risk varied, as assessed by a cluster analysis that established five different groups of parishes, each with a specific profile regarding the relative importance of each dimension. The highest values of wildfire risk are concentrated in the centre-south sector of the study area, with high-risk parishes also dispersed in the northeast. Wildfire risk level is dominated by the hazard component in 52% of the parishes, although with contrasting levels of magnitude. Exposure and social vulnerability dominate together in 32% of the parishes, with the latter being the main risk driver in only 17%. The proposed methodology allows for an integrated, multilevel assessment of wildfire risk, facilitating the effective allocation of resources and the adjustment of risk reduction policies to the specific reality in each parish that results from distinct combinations of the wildfire risk dimensions.

Estimating the Trade-Offs between Wildfires and Carbon Stocks across Landscape Types to Inform Nature-Based Solutions in Mediterranean Regions

“…Full agreement is also found with [16], who designed a complete and detailed FR map for mainland Portugal, which was accepted by the Portuguese fire authority Agency for Integrated Rural Fire Management. Our focus on the most hazardous FR comes from the recent 2017 extreme wildfires events which had extensive impacts, including over 100 casualties [28]. We note that although both assessed ecosystem services are priorities, FR should be significantly valued, reflecting all direct implications for society and the environment.…”

“…Land-use is the only driver directly changeable to address fire protection and carbon storage, while other drivers cannot or can only at the global scale (e.g topography, climate, weather) [16,[27][28][29][30][31].…”

Assessing Forest Road Network Suitability in Relation to the Spatial Occurrence of Wildfires in Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems

“…Many studies, including those by Elia et al [4], Mostafa et al [16] Hong et al [17], Bergonse et al [18], Sinha et al [19], and Zhang et al [20], have used road density and distance in wildfire mapping and modeling as independent variables. For example, Hong et al [17] found that the spatial distribution of wildfire susceptibility is correlated to landscape attributes that have been shaped by residential areas and road networks in Huichang County, China.…”

“…For example, Hong et al [17] found that the spatial distribution of wildfire susceptibility is correlated to landscape attributes that have been shaped by residential areas and road networks in Huichang County, China. Bergonse et al [18] showed that the enhancement of road density contributed to improved evacuation during wildfire disasters in Portugal. Sinha et al [19] found that the forest road network, as one of the anthropogenic indicators, is a contributing factor to more than 60% of wildfire occurrence in the Western Ghats and the Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary in the Himalayas.…”

Mapping the Most Susceptible Regions to Fire in Portugal

“…Many studies have focused their analysis on improving fire prediction and assessment, using machine learning techniques, e.g., [26], and on the identification of the areas that are more vulnerable to fire occurrences. The latter usually relies on meteorological variables and fire danger ratings [27], or on their combination with morphological factors, such as elevation, slope angle, population density, fire's exposition, and land cover [28][29][30][31]. These studies strongly improved the knowledge of fire regimes in Portugal and showed where the responsible authorities should act in order to mitigate the fire risk in certain regions which are highly exposed to fire.…”