Wildfire ignition probability in Belgium

Abstract

Abstract. In recent decades, large wildfires have inflicted considerable damage on valuable Natura 2000 regions in Belgium. Despite these events and the general perception that global change will exacerbate wildfire prevalence, this has not been studied yet in the Belgian context. Therefore, the national government initiated the national action plan on wildfires in order to evaluate the wildfire risk, on the one hand, and the materials, procedures, and training of fire services, on the other hand. This study focuses on the spatial distribution of the ignition probability, a component of the wildfire risk framework. In a first stage, we compile a historical wildfire database using (i) newspaper articles between 1994 and 2016 and (ii) a list of wildfire interventions between 2010 and 2013, provided by the government. In a second stage, we use a straightforward method relying on Bayes' rule and a limited number of covariates to calculate the ignition probability. It appears that most wildfire-prone areas in Belgium are located in heathland where military exercises are held. The provinces that have the largest relative areas with a high or very high wildfire risk are Limburg and Antwerp. Our study also revealed that most wildfire ignitions in Belgium are caused by humans (both arson and negligence) and that natural causes such as lightning are rather scarce. Wildfire prevention can be improved by (i) excluding military activity in fire-prone areas during the fire season, (ii) improving collaboration with foreign emergency services, (iii) concentrating the dedicated resources in the areas that display the highest ignition probabilities, (iv) improving fire detection methods, and (v) raising more awareness among the public.

Forest Resource Availability After Nuclear War or Other Sun‐Blocking Catastrophes

“…The causes of ignition for wildfires are a complex issue that differs across the world (Syphard & Keeley, 2015). Although lightning is the leading cause of fire in some areas, several studies in Europe, Asia, and North America have shown that more than 95% of wildfires with known origin are human‐caused and are therefore largely preventable (Depicker et al., 2020; Hering et al., 2009; Rorig & Ferguson, 1999; Syphard et al., 2007; Ying et al., 2021). For instance, one study on wildfires in California showed that depending on the municipal region, most land burned in a wildfire is due to fires ignited by powerlines, machinery, campfires, and arson (Syphard & Keeley, 2015).…”

Current Wildland Fire Patterns and Challenges in Europe: A Synthesis of National Perspectives

“…In the aftermath of the major wildland fires in 2011, the Federal Public Service Interior (2013) launched a national action plan on wildland fires to evaluate and improve the risk analysis and cartography, materials, procedures and training, emergency planning, and exercises related to the outbreak of wildland fires. Among other things, this national action plan resulted in the compilation of a data-based wildland fire risk map for the entire territory of Belgium (Depicker et al, 2020), based on land-cover, land use, soil, and historical wildland fire data. This map can be used to identify high-risk areas, optimize resource allocation, and increase preparedness for the projected northward expansion of the zones at moderate fire danger in Europe (de Rigo et al, 2017).…”

Wildfire Risk Assessment of Transmission-Line Corridors Based on Naïve Bayes Network and Remote Sensing Data

“…Based on survey, more than 90% of wildfires are linked directly or indirectly to intentional and unintentional human activities [ 25 ]. It mainly includes productive fires such as wasteland and slash burning, and non-productive fires such as smoking in the wild and incensing on the grave [ 26 ].…”