Wildfire, climate, and perceptions in Northeast Oregon

Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Hartter, Joel; Keim, Barry D.; Boag, Angela E.; Palace, M. W.; Stevens, Forrest R.; Ducey, Mark J.

doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0914-y

Cited by 32 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 56 publications

(49 reference statements)

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“…The correlation between the grassland fire climate index and monthly average temperature is negative, which is not consistent with the previous results [49,50]. HulunBuir has a temperate continental climate, and the precipitation and temperature are positively correlated, i.e., when the temperature increases, the precipitation increases.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 86%

Study on Climate and Grassland Fire in HulunBuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Liu

Zhao

Guo

et al. 2017

Sensors

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Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors of the natural ecosystem. Climate factors influence the occurrence and development of grassland fire. An analysis of the climate conditions of fire occurrence can form the basis for a study of the temporal and spatial variability of grassland fire. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of monthly time scale climate factors on the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir, located in the northeast of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China. Based on the logistic regression method, we used the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire data products named thermal anomalies/fire daily L3 Global 1km (MOD14A1 (Terra) and MYD14A1 (Aqua)) and associated climate data for HulunBuir from 2000 to 2010, and established the model of grassland fire climate index. The results showed that monthly maximum temperature, monthly sunshine hours and monthly average wind speed were all positively correlated with the fire climate index; monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthly minimum relative humidity and the number of days with monthly precipitation greater than or equal to 5 mm were all negatively correlated with the fire climate index. We used the active fire data from 2011 to 2014 to validate the fire climate index during this time period, and the validation result was good (Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.578), which showed that the fire climate index model was suitable for analyzing the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir. Analyses were conducted on the temporal and spatial distribution of the fire climate index from January to December in the years 2011–2014; it could be seen that from March to May and from September to October, the fire climate index was higher, and that the fire climate index of the other months is relatively low. The zones with higher fire climate index are mainly distributed in Xin Barag Youqi, Xin Barag Zuoqi, Zalantun Shi, Oroqen Zizhiqi, and Molidawa Zizhiqi; the zones with medium fire climate index are mainly distributed in Chen Barag Qi, Ewenkizu Zizhiqi, Manzhouli Shi, and Arun Qi; and the zones with lower fire climate index are mainly distributed in Genhe Shi, Ergun city, Yakeshi Shi, and Hailar Shi. The results of this study will contribute to the quantitative assessment and management of early warning and forecasting for mid-to long-term grassland fire risk in HulunBuir.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 86%

Study on Climate and Grassland Fire in HulunBuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Liu

Zhao

Guo

et al. 2017

Sensors

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“…Disconnections between public perceptions and past realities, or climatological projections for the future, align with the initial results from a study under way in eastern Oregon (Hamilton et al, 2016). Summer warming there has raised wildfire risks, while the warming itself went unnoticed by much of the public.…”

Section: New Hampshire Flood Perceptionssupporting

confidence: 69%

Flood Realities, Perceptions and the Depth of Divisions on Climate

et al. 2016

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Research has led to broad agreement among scientists that anthropogenic climate change is happening now and likely to worsen. In contrast to scientific agreement, US public views remain deeply divided, largely along ideological lines. Science communication has been neutralised in some arenas by intense counter-messaging, but as adverse climate impacts become manifest they might intervene more persuasively in local perceptions. We look for evidence of this occurring with regard to realities and perceptions of flooding in the northeastern US state of New Hampshire. Although precipitation and flood damage have increased, with ample news coverage, most residents do not see a trend. Nor do perceptions about past and future local flooding correlate with regional impacts or vulnerability. Instead, such perceptions follow ideological patterns resembling those of global climate change. That information about the physical world can be substantially filtered by ideology is a common finding from sociological environment/society research.

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“…A subset of studies focuses on how people perceive weather or climate conditions at the local level. Rather than using beliefs about global climate change as a dependent variable, these studies examine whether people perceive the climate in their local area to be getting warmer, whether recent seasons are warmer or colder than normal, or related local climate trends [25,35,36,38,39,50,60,61,71,[79][80][81].…”

Section: The Effect Of Climate Opinion On Perceptions or Subjective Ementioning

confidence: 99%

“…drought) has a much larger and more homogeneous spatial imprint than heavy precipitation events, temperature anomalies or heat waves; it is also measured very differently. Drought can be measured through the duration of consecutive dry days, but thus far analyses of drought perceptions have relied on readily available indices such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index [28,73,79] or the US Drought Monitor [29,68,72]. Such indices, however, were not originally designed from the perspective of understanding how people experience weather and climate change but rather were designed for use in climatological, agricultural, and similar purposes.…”

Section: Heterogeneous Measurement and Conceptualization Of Independementioning

confidence: 99%

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How will climate change shape climate opinion?

Howe

Marlon

Mildenberger

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

170

129

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As climate change intensifies, global publics will experience more unusual weather and extreme weather events. How will individual experiences with these weather trends shape climate change beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors? In this article, we review 73 papers that have studied the relationship between climate change experiences and public opinion. Overall, we find mixed evidence that weather shapes climate opinions. Although there is some support for a weak effect of local temperature and extreme weather events on climate opinion, the heterogeneity of independent variables, dependent variables, study populations, and research designs complicate systematic comparison. To advance research on this critical topic, we suggest that future studies pay careful attention to differences between self-reported and objective weather data, causal identification, and the presence of spatial autocorrelation in weather and climate data. Refining research designs and methods in future studies will help us understand the discrepancies in results, and allow better detection of effects, which have important practical implications for climate communication. As the global population increasingly experiences weather conditions outside the range of historical experience, researchers, communicators, and policymakers need to understand how these experiences shape-and are shaped by-public opinions and behaviors.

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Wildfire, climate, and perceptions in Northeast Oregon

Cited by 32 publications

References 56 publications

Study on Climate and Grassland Fire in HulunBuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Study on Climate and Grassland Fire in HulunBuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Flood Realities, Perceptions and the Depth of Divisions on Climate

How will climate change shape climate opinion?

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