Why Sudan Succeeded Where Algeria Failed

Abstract

In April 2019, mass uprisings toppled two longtime dictators: Algeria's Abdelaziz Bouteflika ) and Sudan's Omar al-Bashir . However, protesters in both countries soon discovered that ousting a dictator was not enough to initiate a political transition. They therefore remained in the streets, demanding the dismantling of the authoritarian regime and a genuine transition to democracy. But from there, the paths of the two countries diverged.By August 2019, Sudanese protesters had secured a power-sharing agreement with the remnants of Bashir's regime, initiating a transition to democracy shepherded by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. In Algeria, by contrast, protesters continued to demonstrate until May 2021, but were unable to compel the regime to begin a transition. What explains this divergence? Why were protesters in Sudan able to secure a transition to democracy, while Algerians were not, despite both having overthrown their dictators?The answer lies in the ability of all sides in Sudan to negotiate and embark on a "pacted transition," to borrow language from Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter's classic work Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. 1 Although pacts and revolutions are generally considered to be distinct pathways of democratization, the cases of Algeria and Sudan suggest that where the military remains a powerful political force, pacts between it and the opposition may be critical to initiating a transition even after deposing a dictator. Yet the conditions under which such pacts emerge are less clear: O'Donnell and Schmitter argued that pacts arise not due to any structural precondition but rather to leaders' agency and statecraft. While later scholars have identified structural

African coups in the COVID-19 era: A current history

“…If Sudanese protesters had succeeded in forcing a powersharing deal in August 2019 that put Sudan on track for a "pacted transition" (Grewal, 2021), then the October 2021 coup by Burhan represents a "veto coup" by which Burhan and the military have sought to maintain their power and block the negotiated transition to civilian rule, a process which has stalled over the last year despite continuing anti-coup protests (Hudson, 2022). In this struggle, Sudan's military has drawn support from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, all with an interest in blunting democratization in the Arab world (Siegle, 2021).…”

Military Repression and Restraint in Algeria

“…Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on March 19 met with the Algerian deputy prime minister and noted that "Russia was concerned by protests in Algeria and saw attempts underway to destabilize the situation." 5 Other than these statements, however, the international community was largely silent (Grewal 2021). Moreover, Algeria has historically been resistant to international pressure, even from its allies (Benantar 2016).…”

Pathways to democracy after authoritarian breakdown: Comparative case selection and lessons from the past

“…That said, pro-democracy forces in Sudan enjoy opportunities that their Burma/Myanmar counterparts lacked. The Sudanese security apparatus is divided and may be less capable of coordinating against pushes for civilian control (Grewal, 2021; Hassan and Kodouda, 2019).…”

“… 16. Moreover, although all evidence points to the fact that the pro-democracy hirak movement in Algeria has not succeeded in achieving all its goals (Grewal 2021), Algeria’s transition is still ongoing according to our five-years coding rule. Likewise, Yemen in 2012 led to state collapse and civil war instead of the rise of a new authoritarian regime. …”