Why risk analysis isn't working

Hall, William K.

doi:10.1016/0024-6301(75)90022-9

Cited by 38 publications

(15 citation statements)

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“…For example, some observers (e.g. Neuhauser and Viscione 1973;Hall 1975) argue that adoption of formal risk evaluation methods may reduce the level of corporate investment (and possibly shift it away from risky NPD into safer "copycat" projects).…”

Section: Control: Monitoringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Successful New Product Development: A Capital Budgeting Perspective

Neale

1994

Journal of Marketing Management

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Several studies have emphasized the relationship between process and outcome in New Product Development (NPD). A key process which often appears to be performed less than satisfactorily in NPD is business and financial evaluation. This paper applies a capital budgeting perspective to NPD. It briefly explains "best practice" in project appraisal and suggests a link between the degree of capital budgeting "sophistication" and NPD performance. Evidence from a small sample of firms indicates that both size of capital budget and "sophistication" are significantly associated with ongoing success in NPD.

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Section: Control: Monitoringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Successful New Product Development: A Capital Budgeting Perspective

Neale

1994

Journal of Marketing Management

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“…Furthermore, even though some managers accept the philosophy of risk analysis, the additional time and effort necessary to conduct risk analysis may reduce the output of worthwhile investment ideas (Vandell and Stonich, 1973;and Hall, 1975). It is further argued that major projects are usually reviewed at several organizational levels.…”

Section: Hypothesis Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In some situations, there may be 'disincentive' effects on the project generators or sponsors (see e.g. Vandell and Stonich 1973;Neuhauser and Viscione, 1973;and Hall, 1975).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adoption of Probabilistic Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting and Corporate Investment

Pike

1992

Business Fin & Account

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“…A second source of omissions is failure to consider unanticipated changes in the world in which the technology functions (Coates, 1976;Hall, 1975). Risk assessments are always predicated on some assumed constancies in the external environment.…”

Section: Enumeration Of Consequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance

Fischhoff¹

1976

PsycEXTRA Dataset

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A B S T R A C TPartially as the result of consumer and environmentalist pressure, proposals for large-scale government and private projects are increasingly coming under the scrutiny of cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, risk assessment and related approaches. This paper presents a critical overview of such analyses. It discusses (a) their rationale; (b) their acceptability as guides to decision making; (c) the problems such analyses encounter; (d) how they may be misused; and (e) what steps are needed to increase their contribution to society. The discussion is illustrated with a variety of examples, drawn, in particular, from the evaluation of new technologies.Whatever their flaws, such analyses appear to have a critical role in guiding social decision making. It is important, however, for both the analyst and the nonexpert consumer of such analyses to understand the errors to which they are prone in order to maintain a critical perspective. Indeed, the institutionalization of such criticism is essential.Additional research is needed to clarify psychological (subjective) aspects of the analytic process in order to (a) reduce the errors and omissions made by analysts and (b) help policy makers and the public understand the results and the assumptions under which they were reached. Consumer and environmentalist pressure over the last decade has dramatically opened the process of technology regulation in this country to public scrutiny. To some extent, this opening has consisted of bursting through doors that were already ajar. Interested citizens now attend public hearings that fifteen years ago would have drawn only government regulators and industry representatives. A n o t h e r aspect of the change is the emergence of new forms of technology management, the most

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Why risk analysis isn't working

Cited by 38 publications

References 1 publication

Successful New Product Development: A Capital Budgeting Perspective

Successful New Product Development: A Capital Budgeting Perspective

Adoption of Probabilistic Risk Analysis in Capital Budgeting and Corporate Investment

Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance

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