Why Prediction Matters in Multitasking and How Predictability Can Improve It

Broeker, Laura; Kiesel, Andrea; Aufschnaiter, Stefanie; Ewolds, Harald; Gaschler, Robert; Haider, Hilde; Künzell, Stefan; Raab, Markus; Röttger, Eva; Thomaschke, Roland; Zhao, Fang

doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.02021

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…It is widely known that human action especially benefits from prediction when being confronted with situations, which require multitasking (Broeker et al, 2020 ; Gaschler et al, 2018 ). Apart from various other sources of predictability in the context of multitasking (for a comprehensive overview, see Broeker et al, 2017 ), the human cognitive system can benefit from the temporal distribution of tasks. Previous research revealed that individuals are able to form time-based expectancies, when one specific time interval co-occurs frequently with a specific target stimulus (Thomaschke et al, 2015 ; Volberg & Thomaschke, 2017 ).…”

Section: Investigating Time-based Expectancy Beyond Binary Timing Sce...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating time-based expectancy beyond binary timing scenarios: evidence from a paradigm employing three predictive pre-target intervals

Aufschnaiter

Zhao

Gaschler

et al. 2021

Psychological Research

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When the duration of a pre-target interval probabilistically predicts the identity of the target, participants typically form time-based expectancies: they respond faster to frequent interval-target combinations than to infrequent ones. Yet, previous research investigating the cognitive time-processing mechanisms underlying time-based expectancy assessed time-based expectancy always in situations with a binary set of intervals (i.e. short vs. long). Here we aim to test whether time-based expectancy transfers to more complex settings with three different predictive time intervals (short, medium, long) in which each predicts one of three different target stimuli with 80% probability. In three experiments we varied how the medium interval was computed (arithmetic mean, geometric mean, or in between both). Our results showed that participants were able to learn the time-event contingencies for the short and the long as well as for the medium interval, and were, thus able to flexibly redirect their target expectancy two times during the course of a trial. The evidence concerning the impact of the manipulation of the medium intervals’ absolute duration on time-based expectancy was, however, mixed, as time-based expectancy for the medium interval could only be observed in one of three reported experiments. In sum, the findings of the present study suggest a previously unknown cognitive flexibility underlying time-based expectancy and offer important theoretical implications, challenging future research on the timing mechanisms involved in time-based expectancy.

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Section: Investigating Time-based Expectancy Beyond Binary Timing Sce...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating time-based expectancy beyond binary timing scenarios: evidence from a paradigm employing three predictive pre-target intervals

Aufschnaiter

Zhao

Gaschler

et al. 2021

Psychological Research

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“…Konstantopoulos et al 2010;Plainis and Murray 2002), it is hard to disentangle the differential impact of dual task (task-hindering) vs. predictability (task-promoting) conditions, and to explain where the benefits come from. It has been argued that prediction is an omnipresent principle of human behaviour and that the beneficial effects of predictability in the environment are universal (Blakemore et al 2000;Broeker et al 2017;Northoff 2014), yet evidence for this claim comes from mostly basic tasks.…”

Section: The Impact Of Predictability In Driving Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On a theoretical basis, predictability in dual tasks decreases the overall need for resources because predictable tasks require fewer attentional resources or bind resources, and are processed more efficiently (Hazeltine et al 2002;Król and Król 2017;Tombu and Jolicoeur 2003;Trick et al 2010;Wickens 2002). Because resource accounts suggest that multitasking costs occur due to competition for resources between concurrently performed tasks, resources madeavailable by predictability can be allocated to other tasks (Broeker et al 2017). According to bottleneck theories (Pashler 2000), the response-selection bottleneck represents a filter that requires rapid channel switching when two tasks compete for response selection (or execution, see Bratzke et al 2009).…”

Section: Beneficial Impact Of Predictability From a Classic Dual-taskmentioning

confidence: 99%

How visual information influences dual-task driving and tracking

et al. 2020

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The study examined the impact of visual predictability on dual-task performance in driving and tracking tasks. Participants (N = 27) performed a simulated driving task and a pursuit tracking task. In either task, visual predictability was manipulated by systematically varying the amount of advance visual information: in the driving task, participants drove at night with low beam, at night with high beam, or in daylight; in the tracking task, participants saw a white line that specified the future target trajectory for 200, 400 or 800 ms. Concurrently with driving or tracking, participants performed an auditory task. They had to discriminate between two sounds and press a pedal upon hearing the higher sound. Results show that in general, visual predictability benefited driving and tracking; however, dual-task driving performance was best with highest visual predictability (daylight), dual-task tracking performance was best with medium visual predictability (400 ms). Braking/reaction times were higher in dual tasks compared to single tasks, but were unaffected by visual predictability, showing that its beneficial effects did not transfer to the auditory task. In both tasks, manual accuracy decreased around the moment the foot pressed the pedal, indicating interference between tasks. We, therefore, conclude that despite a general beneficial impact of predictability, the integration of visual information seems to be rather task specific, and that interference between driving and audiomotor tasks, and tracking and audiomotor tasks, seems comparable.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This performance improvement can be attained if tasks are able to be predicted by prior events (see Broeker et al, 2017 for review on predictability). Task predictability is induced in several ways, such as through the predictability of task sequences (Gotler et al, 2003 ; Heuer et al, 2001 ; Koch, 2001 ) or the predictability of a proportion of task switches (Bonnin et al, 2011 ; De Baene & Brass, 2013 ; Dreisbach & Haider, 2006 ; Duthoo et al, 2012 ). For instance, when participants are initially trained to execute two different tasks in a fixed sequence, their performance improves when the tasks are presented in the previously learned sequence and are therefore predictable, when compared with the performance when the task sequence is random (Koch, 2001 , 2005 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-based task expectancy: perceptual task indicator expectancy or expectancy of post-perceptual task components?

Monno

Aufschnaiter

Ehret

et al. 2021

Psychological Research

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The temporal predictability of upcoming events plays a crucial role in the adjustment of anticipatory cognitive control in multitasking. Previous research has demonstrated that task switching performance improved if tasks were validly predictable by a pre-target interval. Hence, far, the underlying cognitive processes of time-based task expectancy in task switching have not been clearly defined. The present study investigated whether the effect of time-based expectancy is due to expectancy of post-perceptual task components or rather due to facilitation of perceptual visual processing of the coloured task indicator. Participants performed two numeric judgment tasks (parity vs. magnitude), which were each indicated by two different colours. Each task was either more or less frequently preceded by one of two intervals (500 ms or 1500 ms). Tasks were indicated either by colours that were each more frequently (or in Exp. 1 also less frequently) paired with the interval or by colours that were equally frequent for each interval. Participants only responded faster when colour and task were predictable by time (expected colour), not when the task alone was predictable (neutral colour). Hence, our results speak in favour of perceptual time-based task indicator expectancy being the underlying cognitive mechanism of time-based expectancy in the task switching paradigm.

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Why Prediction Matters in Multitasking and How Predictability Can Improve It

Cited by 9 publications

References 33 publications

Investigating time-based expectancy beyond binary timing scenarios: evidence from a paradigm employing three predictive pre-target intervals

Investigating time-based expectancy beyond binary timing scenarios: evidence from a paradigm employing three predictive pre-target intervals

How visual information influences dual-task driving and tracking

Time-based task expectancy: perceptual task indicator expectancy or expectancy of post-perceptual task components?

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