Why have public mass shootings become more deadly?

Lankford, Adam; Silver, James

doi:10.1111/1745-9133.12472

Cited by 47 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…In total, 1225 people were killed in a mass shooting over the past 53 years with more than half occurring in the last decade, a function of increases in mass shootings and weapon lethality [62,63,75]. Public mass shooting fatalities and injuries far outpace population growth [75].…”

Section: Principal Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because our study specifically targeted the federal legislation, we omitted state-level gun policies such as state-level prohibitions on certain types of guns, LCMs, or more lethal types of bullets. It is likely that the internet serves as a contagion and as a guide to potential mass shooters, allowing them to access weapons and multiple stories about other mass shooters [62,67,89,90].…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since deaths from public mass shootings comprise less than 1% of all homicides based on our definition, testing whether or not the FAWB/LCM ban has an impact on homicide would wash out the effect. Since the FAWB/LCM ban may be effective at specific types of gun deaths, sampling must be limited to specific types of shooters over overall gun deaths or tests for lethality [62,63]. Finally, the variation in research findings is related to differences in research design, sampling frame, and case definition of a public mass shooting [3,[53][54][55][56]64,65].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Post¹,

Mason²,

Singh³

et al. 2021

JMIR Public Health Surveill

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Background Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. Although there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, opinions on exactly which policies that entails vary, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. Objective The aim of this study was to determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place. Methods We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of 4 or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place. Results The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people. Conclusions This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work.

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Section: Principal Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Post¹,

Mason²,

Singh³

et al. 2021

JMIR Public Health Surveill

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Given the prominence of social exclusion in previous shootings, it is likely shooters will reference exclusion in their manifestos. While we expect that shooters may reference explicit episodes of social rejection, bullying, and instability, we also consider the possibility that the language of exclusion may take the form of attention seeking given that research has demonstrated that fame‐seeking behavior is a common component of mass shooters’ motivations (Bushman 2018; Lankford 2016a, 2016b; Lankford and Silver 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Masculinity, Ritual, and Racialized Status Threat: Examining Mass Shooter Manifestos Using Structural Topic Models

Pfaffendorf

Davis

Kinney

2021

Sociological Inquiry

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Both popular media and research often frame mass shootings as an individual issue having to do with mental illness or other individual differences. This work has unfolded in much the same fashion as that on other negative or anti‐social behaviors—such as the individual pathologization of suicide or rape. However, what this work has shown empirically is that there are often a set of circumstances that are uniquely social that motivate such actions. Following work in sociology, which offers social psychological and cultural explanations for gun violence, we argue that mass shooter motivations reflect social conditions—especially those that instantiate toxic masculinity, social exclusion, and racism—conducive to these events. This article uses a computational textual modeling approach to analyze the distinct social logics that motivate mass shooters. To do this, we identify a sample of 27 publicly available mass shooter “manifestos,” or documents left behind by shooters following their actions. Using topic models, we show that mass shooters exhibit a variety of preoccupations that underlie their actions. While shooters can exhibit a multitude of possible motivations, we find that expressions of masculine overcompensation, ritualistic responses to exclusion, and racialized status threat are prominent features of mass shooter manifestos, corroborating recent sociological explanations of mass shootings.

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“…Perpetrators who are so mentally disturbed that they have no grasp of reality would not be a good fit for Granovetter's model. However, even if they are depressed or paranoid, most public mass shooters demonstrate the ability to make rational decisions (when purchasing weapons, selecting targets, planning their attacks, creating legacy tokens, and/or seeking notoriety) that do involve assessing costs and benefits and attempting to maximize their utility (Capellan & Silva, 2021; Lankford & Silver, 2020). Furthermore, Granovetter (1978) suggests threshold-zero “radicals” care more about rioting than about their personal safety and may be labeled “demented” if they are not followed (pp.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Close Examination of the 2016 Dallas and Baton Rouge Police Killers: Identifying Potential Risk Factors and Influences for Copycat Violence

Lankford

2021

International Criminal Justice Review

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Two of the worst targeted attacks on American police officers in recent history occurred within eleven days of each other. Although it seems clear their proximity was not merely attributable to chance, the connection between these incidents, and the implications for understanding copycat violence, have never been fully explored. This study analyzes the perpetrators of these attacks from a “thresholds of violence” perspective, which suggests the first actor in a sequence is more likely to be disturbed and violence prone, while subsequent actors are typically less disturbed but more socially influenced. Results suggest the thresholds model has both merits and limits. The first attacker did have more psychological problems and violence in his past, and the second did seem more influenced by violent role models. However, there were also many similarities between them, and both attacked due to a combination of internal and external factors. If this study's findings are generalizable, higher risks of becoming a copycat offender may exist for individuals who have (1) personal similarities with previous attackers, (2) a history of psychological problems, (3) a history of interest in violent actors, and (4) recent escalation in their online behavior. Recommendations are offered for future research, offender profiling, and violence prevention.

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Why have public mass shootings become more deadly?

Cited by 47 publications

References 29 publications

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Masculinity, Ritual, and Racialized Status Threat: Examining Mass Shooter Manifestos Using Structural Topic Models

A Close Examination of the 2016 Dallas and Baton Rouge Police Killers: Identifying Potential Risk Factors and Influences for Copycat Violence

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