Why does Quercus suber species decline in Mediterranean areas?

Kim, Hae Naem; Jin, Hye Young; Kwak, Myeong Ja; Khaine, Inkyin; You, Ha Na; Lee, Tae Yoon; Ahn, Tai Hyeon; Woo, Su Young

doi:10.1016/j.japb.2017.05.004

Cited by 33 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Considering broadleaf species and the oaks group, our outcome is partially in agreement with the existing knowledge. A negative variation in habitat suitability was also predicted in Perkins et al [104] while a negative decrease in habitat suitability can be read in Kim et al [105] for cork oak in the Mediterranean area. Finally, a decrease in habitat suitability during the future period was predicted for holm and turkey oak by Vitale et al [106] in the same environment we studied.…”

Section: Sdm As a Tool For Forest Management Options In The Italian Fsupporting

confidence: 52%

Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Pecchi

Marchi

Moriondo

et al. 2020

Forests

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Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for human wellbeing. In a changing climate, forest management is expected to play a fundamental role by preserving the functioning of forest ecosystems and enhancing the adaptive processes. Understanding and quantifying the future forest coverage in view of climate changes is therefore crucial in order to develop appropriate forest management strategies. However, the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems remain largely unknown due to the uncertainties lying behind the future prediction of models. To fill this knowledge gap, here we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the forest coverage in Italy using species distribution modelling technique. The spatial distribution of 19 forest tree species in the country was extracted from the last national forest inventory and modelled using nine Species Distribution Models algorithms, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). The single species predictions were then compared and used to build a future forest cover map for the country. Overall, no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area was predicted with compensatory effects in forest coverage of different tree species, whose magnitude and patters appear largely modulated by the driving climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and, therefore, a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands along the Apennines chain in central Italy (e.g., Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g., Fagus, Quercus) and generally characterized by pure and even-aged planted forests, much further away from their natural structure where admixture with other tree species is more likely. In this context a sustainable forest management strategy may reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favoring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow, and supporting (spatial) migration processes.

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Section: Sdm As a Tool For Forest Management Options In The Italian Fsupporting

confidence: 52%

Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Pecchi

Marchi

Moriondo

et al. 2020

Forests

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“…Cork oak forest erosion is a large-scale process taking place throughout its entire geographical range. Numerous studies have analysed the causes of cork oak forest cover reduction, especially in the Iberian peninsula (the area with largest surface of cork oak forests in the world), and found that the reduction was due to overgrazing, wildfires, mechanical removal of the original vegetation thus making conditions for seedling establishment unfavourable, climate change and, finally, oak decline 7 – 9 , 14 , 62 , often acting simultaneously 1 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, despite the European trend of forest expansion 11 , 12 , Mediterranean cork oak forests are experiencing large scale shrinkage 13 . This is due to the regeneration problems described above and the increases in mean annual temperatures, tree diseases, overgrazing and environment degradation 14 , which often overwhelm cork oak afforestation efforts 13 . It is estimated that almost half of all cork oak forests have been lost over the last 100 years 14 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Employing a spatio-temporal contingency table for the analysis of cork oak cover change in the Sa Serra region of Sardinia

Dettori

Filigheddu

Deplano

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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Land cover change analyses are common and, especially in the absence of explanatory variables, they are mainly carried out by employing qualitative methods such as transition matrices or raster operations. These methods do not provide any estimation of the statistical significance of the changes, or the uncertainty of the model and data, and are usually limited in supporting explicit biological/ecological interpretation of the processes determining the changes. Here we show how the original nearest-neighbour contingency table, proposed by Dixon to evaluate spatial segregation, has been extended to the temporal domain to map the intensity, statistical significance and uncertainty of land cover changes. This index was then employed to quantify the changes in cork oak forest cover between 1998 and 2016 in the Sa Serra region of Sardinia (Italy). The method showed that most statistically significant cork oak losses were concentrated in the centre of Sa Serra and characterised by high intensity. A spatial binomial-logit generalised linear model estimated the probability of changes occurring in the area but not the type of change. We show how the spatio-temporal Dixon’s index can be an attractive alternative to other land cover change analysis methods, since it provides a robust statistical framework and facilitates direct biological/ecological interpretation.

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“…Considering broad-leaves species and the oaks group our outcome is partially in agreement with the existing knowledge. A negative variation in habitat suitability was also predicted Perkins et al (2018) while a negative decrease in habitat suitability can be read in Kim et al (2017) for cork oak in the Mediterranean area. Finally, a decrease in habitat suitability during future period was predicted for holm and turkey oak by Vitale et al (2012) in the same environment we studied.…”

Section: Sdm As a Tool For Forest Management Options In The Italian Fmentioning

confidence: 90%

Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s

Pecchi¹,

Marchi²,

Moriondo³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for the human wellbeing and their ability is influenced by climate background and further connected to forest management strategies. Italy is a well-known biodiversity hotspot but an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change is still missing in this country. The aim of this paper is model the potential impact of climate change on 19 tree species occurring across the Italian forests using a species distribution modelling approach, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). Results: While no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area has been predicted with some tree species gaining space and covering the spatial contractions of others, results showed substantial differences between each species and different climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and therefore a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands (e.g. Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g. Fagus, Quercus), probably due to their artificial origin which established pure stands with tree species generally more prone to admixture with others in (semi)-natural ecosystems.Conclusions: Forest management could play a fundamental role to reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favouring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow and supporting (spatial) migration processes.

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Why does Quercus suber species decline in Mediterranean areas?

Cited by 33 publications

References 13 publications

Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Employing a spatio-temporal contingency table for the analysis of cork oak cover change in the Sa Serra region of Sardinia

Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s

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