Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis

Becker, Sascha O.; Fetzer, Thomas; Novy, Dennis

doi:10.1093/epolic/eix012

Cited by 429 publications

(399 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The reasons for these rather counter-intuitive observations are complex, and involve cultural or political aspects as well as economic influences (Becker, Fetzer, & Novy, 2017).…”

Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel

Chen

Los

McCann

et al. 2018

Papers in Regional Science

143

148

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In this paper we employ an extension of the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) with regional detail for EU countries to study the degree to which EU regions and countries are exposed to negative trade-related consequences of Brexit. We develop an index of this exposure, which incorporates all effects due to geographically fragmented production processes within the UK, the EU and beyond. Our findings demonstrate that UK regions are far more exposed than regions in other countries. Only regions in the Republic of Ireland face exposure levels similar to some UK regions, while the next most affected regions are in Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium and France. This imbalance may influence the outcomes of the negotiations between the UK and the EU. KEYWORDSBrexit, input-output analysis, regional differences, trade, value chains | INTRODUCTIONSince the UK decided in 2016 by referendum to leave the European Union there has been a large and growing body of material explaining the reasons for the decision in both the academic arena as well as in the popular press. In contrast, there has been much less post-referendum material emerging regarding the likely long-term impacts of this decision, and there are probably two main reasons for this. First, there were various forecasts produced by different organizations prior the -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. referendum which predicted a rapid UK recession immediately following the decision to leave, and this has simply not transpired. Although there is now emerging evidence of the effects of a devalued Sterling on UK inflation and living standards (Financial Times, 2017a), as well as a fragile trade balance even under currency depreciation, the fact that no UK recession has so far materialized (The Economist, 2017) probably makes many forecasters rather loathe to speculate any further.Second, and more importantly, Brexit has not yet actually happened, and it is very difficult to speculate in detail about the likely long-run impacts of Brexit until the specific outlines of the new UK-EU trading relationships become clear.What we aim to analyse here is the exposure of regions in the UK and the EU to Brexit, via an analysis of the nature and scale of their trade linkages. Other potential advantages and disadvantages, for example as a consequence of the relocation of UK subsidiaries of multinational firms or the redistribution of subsidies to regions are not considered. 1 In this study, we intend to quantify the shares of regional and national GDP and labour income (in the UK and the EU) that are at risk due to Brexit. The extent to which these risks will actually materialize, for example via tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade between the EU and the UK, will depend on the final agreements reached (if...

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“…The reasons for these rather counter-intuitive observations are complex, and involve cultural or political aspects as well as economic influences (Becker, Fetzer, & Novy, 2017).…”

Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel

Chen

Los

McCann

et al. 2018

Papers in Regional Science

143

148

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Another reason to focus on subgroups is the demographic composition of the Brexit referendum vote. It has been shown, for example, that older and less educated voters in particular were more likely to vote 'Leave' (Becker et al, 2016;Goodwin and Heath, 2016;Rosenbaum, 2017) and, relative to their younger counterparts, older people place a higher importance on the issue of immigration as the UK negotiates its way out of the EU (Bulman, 2017). Our findings will show whether immigration-induced changes in subjective well-being are congruent with these voting and policy preference patterns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Local-level immigration and life satisfaction: The EU enlargement experience in England and Wales

Ivļevs

Veliziotis

2017

Environ Plan A

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The 2004 European Union enlargement resulted in an unprecedented wave of 1.5 million workers relocating from Eastern Europe to the UK. We study the links between this migrant inflow and life satisfaction of native residents in England and Wales. Combining the British Household Panel Survey with the Local Authority level administrative data from the Worker Registration Scheme, we find that higher levels of local immigration were associated with a decrease in life satisfaction among older, unemployed and lower-income people, and with an increase in life satisfaction among younger, employed, higher-income and better educated people. These findings are driven by the initial 'migration shock' -the inflows that occurred in the first two years after the enlargement. Overall, our study highlights the importance of local-level immigration in shaping the life satisfaction of receiving populations. We also argue that our results help explain the socio-demographic patterns observed in the UK Brexit vote.

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“…We discuss these in detail in section 3 and consider how future work might tackle some of these issues and how they apply to these results. It is important to note that the predicted sectoral impacts are model dependent and so we would urge caution in 2 See, for example, some of the contributions in Baldwin (2016) and Becker, Fetzer and Novy (2017). placing strong weight on the estimated impact for any particular sector.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Local Economic Effects of Brexit

Dhingra

Machin

Overman

2017

Natl. Inst. econ. rev.

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This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are developed from a structural trade model. Average effects are predicted to be negative under both scenarios, and to be more negative under hard Brexit. The spatial variation in negative shocks across areas is higher in the latter case as some local areas are particularly specialised in sectors that are predicted to be badly hit by hard Brexit. Areas in the South of England, and urban areas, are harder hit by Brexit under both scenarios. Again, this pattern is explained by sector specialisation. Finally, the areas that were most likely to vote remain are those that are predicted to be most negatively impacted by Brexit. Acknowledgements and DisclaimerThanks to Rui Costa, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon and Hanwei Huang for excellent research assistance. This paper provides further methodological detail and additional discussion of results first published in the CEP Brexit report by Dhingra, Machin and Overman (2017) and summarised in Clayton and Overman (2017). We thank Naomi Clayton and other researchers at the Centre for Cities for their help in producing those earlier reports.

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Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis

Cited by 429 publications

References 35 publications

The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel

The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel

Local-level immigration and life satisfaction: The EU enlargement experience in England and Wales

Local Economic Effects of Brexit

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