Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

Dalen, H.P. van; Henkens, Kène

doi:10.4054/demres.2011.25.13

Cited by 32 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…It is generally assumed that a declining population implies lower demand and hence slower output growth, unless it is compensated for by new production technologies. This heavily depends on the assumption of similar preferences of current and future consumers and thus of similar consumption behavior (van Dalen and Henkens 2011). However, so far, no proof has been found of a positive relationship between population size and GDP per head or between the growth rates of these variables (Coleman and Rowthorn 2011).…”

Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, at the regional level, these relationships might actually exist. An interesting study conducted in the Netherlands shows that people are well aware of “the potential economic disadvantages of population decline,” but that they also anticipate and appreciate the potential intangible advantages (van Dalen and Henkens 2011). …”

Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This financial basis is likely to be threatened when government expenditures are fixed or slow to adjust (Brunner 1996). In addition, important challenges appear when population levels drop below thresholds that are needed to finance indispensable public facilities (e.g., schools, hospitals, public transport; van Dalen and Henkens 2011; see also Feser and Sweeney 2003). Here, a complex challenge arises not only of funding public facilities and infrastructure with decreasing resources but also of maintaining some minimum level of service provision that, in the face of declining population densities, increases in cost.…”

Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

“…When an area becomes less popular for whatever reason, the prices of houses might drop. For young people who have yet to enter the housing market, this may be good news, but for homeowners, the consequences of population decline might be disastrous (van Dalen and Henkens 2011). In particular, households with a long-term mortgage based on the original, higher housing price can be locked into a situation where they have no choice but to “vote with their feet” anymore.…”

Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

“…When local governments, for example, try to prevent future decline and start a “race to the bottom” by trying to attract people or businesses from other regions or countries, this can clearly result in a situation where improving the situation in one region impairs the problems of a neighboring one (van Dalen and Henkens 2011). Studying the links between spatial spillovers, income convergence, and inequality is of utmost importance (Rey and Janikas 2005).…”

Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

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For Whom the Bells Toll

Franklin

Leeuwen

2016

International Regional Science Review

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In his presidential address to the Regional Science Association over thirty years ago, William Alonso presented the case for “Five Bell Shapes in Development” and argued that “the developed countries will enter fully in to the realm of the right-hand tail of these curves” (p. 16) and that this transition might result in several surprises. He proposed, therefore, that we should study the right tail of these “curves” as well as interactions among them. Much of what Alonso suggested has come to pass, although his prognostications were not always exact. And although he touched on several issues of relevance to regional scientists, the discipline has been slow to move away from a growth-centered paradigm. The strength of regional science—the capacity to consider economic, demographic, and geographical aspects of an issue simultaneously—has yet to be focused on some of the “right-hand” challenges that have arisen, population loss, for example. In this article, we provide a review of regional science research within the context of Alonso’s five bells and hypothesize how Alonso’s propositions might differ in today’s world. We then focus more specifically on one particular area: population loss. Using these examples allows us to highlight how regional science might contribute to the conceptualization of “right-hand tail” development challenges, especially where theory, issues of spatial scale, and interregional dependencies are concerned.

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Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Study: Population Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

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For Whom the Bells Toll

Franklin

Leeuwen

2016

International Regional Science Review

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A longitudinal area classification of migration in Great Britain: Testing the application of Group‐Based Multi‐Trajectory Modelling

Einem

Panter

Reid

2023

Population Space and Place

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The migration of people affects the geographical distribution of the population and the demographic composition of areas over the short, medium and long terms. To recognise and respond to the corresponding needs and challenges, including consequences for service provision, social cohesion and population health, there is a continuing need to understand migration patterns of the past and present. Area classifications are a useful tool to simplify the inherently complex data on migration flows and characteristics. Yet, existing classifications often lack direct migration measures or focus solely on cross‐sectional data. This study addresses these limitations by employing Group‐Based Multi‐Trajectory Modelling (GBMTM) to create a longitudinal, migration‐specific classification of Great Britain's wards from 1981 to 2011, using six migration indicators. Using U.K. census data, we reveal six distinct migration clusters that highlight the rapid growth in studentifying neighbourhoods, the continuous influx of migrants into inner cities, and a noticeable North–South divide in terms of movers' tenure enforced by persisting income selectivity. Additionally, the geographical distribution of clusters shows a common pattern in urban areas irrespective of size or location. The longitudinal perspective of our GBMTM classification highlights trends and changes in migration patterns that are not well reflected in either the general purpose or the cross‐sectional migration classification that we used as comparators. We conclude that the method presented and the classification generated offer a novel lens on migration and provide new opportunities to explore the effects of migration on a variety of outcomes and at various scales.

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Population Decline

Liu

2021

Encyclopedia of Gerontology and Population Aging

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Who fears and who welcomes population decline?

Cited by 32 publications

References 25 publications

For Whom the Bells Toll

For Whom the Bells Toll

A longitudinal area classification of migration in Great Britain: Testing the application of Group‐Based Multi‐Trajectory Modelling

Population Decline

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