White Knights: will wind and solar come to the rescue of a looming capacity gap from nuclear phase-out or slow CCS start-up?

Griffin, Bradford; Buisson, Pierre; Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0963-5

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…These groups have produced five scenarios for the Brazilian energy mix out to 2050 under different climate policy regimes. The models used in this study are: EPPA (Paltsev et al, 2005(Paltsev et al, , 2013; GCAM ; MESSAGE-Brazil (IAEA, 2006;Lucena et al, 2010;Nogueira et al, 2014); Phoenix (Wing et al, 2011); POLES (Griffin et al, 2014;Kitous, 2010); and TIAM-ECN van der Zwaan, 2013). These models differ from each other in terms of their modeling approach (optimization or simulation), spatial resolution (national or global), sectoral scope (partial or general equilibrium), degree of foresight (myopic or perfect foresight) and representation of technological options (type, availability and costs).…”

Section: Participating Models and Scenario Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

et al. 2016

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a b s t r a c t Available online xxxx JEL classification: H23 C88 Q40 Q54 C61 C63 C68 O57 Keywords: Climate policy Low-carbon energy scenarios Mitigation alternatives BrazilThis paper assesses the effects of market-based mechanisms and carbon emission restrictions on the Brazilian energy system by comparing the results of six different energy-economic or integrated assessment models under different scenarios for carbon taxes and abatement targets up to 2050. Results show an increase over time in emissions in the baseline scenarios due, largely, to higher penetration of natural gas and coal. Climate policy scenarios, however, indicate that such a pathway can be avoided. While taxes up to 32 US$/tCO 2 e do not significantly reduce emissions, higher taxes (from 50 US$/tCO 2 e in 2020 to 162US$/tCO 2 e in 2050) induce average emission reductions around 60% when compared to the baseline. Emission constraint scenarios yield even lower reductions in most models. Emission reductions are mostly due to lower energy consumption, increased penetration of renewable energy (especially biomass and wind) and of carbon capture and storage technologies for fossil and/or biomass fuels. This paper also provides a discussion of specific issues related to mitigation alternatives in Brazil. The range of mitigation options resulting from the model runs generally falls within the limits found for specific energy sources in the country, although infrastructure investments and technology improvements are needed for the projected mitigation scenarios to achieve actual feasibility.

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Section: Participating Models and Scenario Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

et al. 2016

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“…These long-term ambitions are developed, tested and studied with long-term energy modelling tools. They feature a global rise in renewable energy production: hydro power, biomass, geothermal, marine energy (thermal, wave or tidal), but most of all they forecast a strong expansion of wind and solar power generation (Griffin et al, 2013;Luderer et al, 2013). Borenstein (Borenstein, 2015) points out that "renewable energy technologies have made outstanding progress in the last decade.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storage as a flexibility option in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources: a POLES-based analysis

et al. 2017

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In this paper we demonstrate the role of electricity storage for the integration of high shares of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES 3 ) in the long-term evolution of the power system. For this a new electricity module is developed in POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). It now takes into account the impacts of VRES on the European power system. The power system operation relies on EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch), which includes daily storage and other inter-temporal constraints. The innovative aspect of our work is the direct coupling between POLES and EUCAD, thus combining a long-term simulation horizon and a short-term approach for the power system operation. The storage technologies represented are pumped-hydro storage, lithium-ion batteries, adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage (a-CAES) and electric vehicles (charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid). Demand response and European grid interconnections are also represented, in order to include to some extent these flexibility options.

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“…Specifically, IAMs have been used to analyze CCS deployment for various scenarios of technological availability and options for regulatory control (Bosetti et al 2012;Griffin et al 2014;Kalkuhl et al 2015;Kanudia et al 2014;Koelbl et al 2014;Muratori et al 2016Muratori et al , 2017Smith et al 2015;Gerlagh 2009, 2016;van der Zwaan and Smekens 2009). In most of these analyses, CCS technologies are used for 20-80% of primary energy production under various scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Leakage risks of geologic CO2 storage and the impacts on the global energy system and climate change mitigation

et al. 2017

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This study investigated how subsurface and atmospheric leakage from geologic CO 2 storage reservoirs could impact the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in the global energy system. The Leakage Risk Monetization Model was used to estimate the costs of leakage for representative CO 2 injection scenarios, and these costs were incorporated into the Global Change Assessment Model. Worst-case scenarios of CO 2 leakage risk, which assume that all leakage pathway permeabilities are extremely high, were simulated. Even with this extreme assumption, the associated costs of monitoring, treatment, containment, and remediation resulted in minor shifts in the global energy system. For example, the reduction in CCS deployment in the electricity sector was 3% for the Bhigh^leakage scenario, with replacement coming from fossil fuel and biomass without CCS, nuclear power, and renewable energy. In other words, the impact on CCS deployment under a realistic leakage scenario is likely to be negligible. We also quantified how the resulting shifts will impact atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Under a carbon tax that achieves an atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 480 ppm in 2100, technology shifts due to leakage costs would increase this concentration by less than 5 ppm. It is important to emphasize that this increase does not result from leaked CO 2 that reaches the land surface, which is minimal due to secondary trapping in geologic strata above the storage reservoir. The overall conclusion is that leakage risks and associated costs will likely not interfere with the effectiveness of policies for climate change mitigation.

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White Knights: will wind and solar come to the rescue of a looming capacity gap from nuclear phase-out or slow CCS start-up?

Cited by 11 publications

References 13 publications

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

Storage as a flexibility option in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources: a POLES-based analysis

Leakage risks of geologic CO2 storage and the impacts on the global energy system and climate change mitigation

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