White House Releases National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan

Jonas, Seth; McCarron, Eoin D.

doi:10.1002/2015sw001357

Cited by 15 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…To this end, it is important to develop, validate, and deploy forecast models into an operational environment. This is one of the major themes of the recently released National Space Weather Action Plan [ Jonas and McCarron , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring predictive performance: A reanalysis of the geospace model transition challenge

et al. 2017

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The Pulkkinen et al. (2013) study evaluated the ability of five different geospace models to predict surface dB/dt as a function of upstream solar drivers. This was an important step in the assessment of research models for predicting and ultimately preventing the damaging effects of geomagnetically induced currents. Many questions remain concerning the capabilities of these models. This study presents a reanalysis of the Pulkkinen et al. (2013) results in an attempt to better understand the models' performance. The range of validity of the models is determined by examining the conditions corresponding to the empirical input data. It is found that the empirical conductance models on which global magnetohydrodynamic models rely are frequently used outside the limits of their input data. The prediction error for the models is sorted as a function of solar driving and geomagnetic activity. It is found that all models show a bias toward underprediction, especially during active times. These results have implications for future research aimed at improving operational forecast models.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring predictive performance: A reanalysis of the geospace model transition challenge

et al. 2017

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“…In 2014, the White House, building on previous interagency efforts to develop a coordinated federal government response to space weather, established the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force, co-chaired by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Commerce (Jonas et al 2016). In 2015, the task force developed the "National Space Weather Strategy" and the accompanying "National Space Weather Action Plan" in, which they "articulate how the federal government will work to enhance national space-weather preparedness by coordinating, integrating, and expanding existing policy efforts; engaging a broad range of sectors; and collaborating with international counterparts" (White House Office of Science and Technology Policy 2015).…”

Section: Enhancing Space Weather Preparednessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space Weather Policy and Effects

Jonas¹,

McCarron²,

Murtagh³

2016

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Space weather events have the potential to negatively affect technology and energy infrastructures that are essential contributors to national security, economic vitality, and daily functioning. The term "space weather" refers to the naturally occurring, dynamic conditions of the space environment that arise from emissions from the sun, which include solar flares, solar energetic particles, and coronal mass ejections. These emissions can interact with Earth, potentially degrading, disrupting, or damaging electric power systems; satellite, aircraft, and spacecraft operations; telecommunications; position, navigation, and timing services; and other technologies and infrastructures. As these technologies become increasingly ubiquitous and interdependent, the world faces greater risks from the threats posed by space weather events. Critical infrastructures make up diverse, complex, interdependent systems of systems in which the failure of one could cascade to another. Understanding this threat and the effects of space weather on critical systems is crucial to enhancing preparedness and building resilience. This article (1) provides readers with an overview of the space weather phenomena most likely to degrade, disrupt, or damage critical infrastructures; (2) describes the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's process for communicating space weather conditions and their possible effects on critical systems; and (3) details current Federal and international efforts to enhance space weather preparedness.

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“…The statistical study of occurrences of solar flares using X-ray classification allows us to estimate the magnitudes of the most extreme intensities a solar flare can reach in a given period of time (Koons, 2001;Riley, 2012). Knowing the magnitude of the most extreme events is of great interest in the context of Space Weather studies due to the fact that the protocols of civil protection related with this natural phenomenon need information regarding the worst expected scenarios (Jonas and McCarron, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Maximum Intensities of Soft X-Ray Flares Using Extreme Value Theory

2018

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Solar flares are one of the most energetic events in the solar system, their impact on Earth at ground level and its atmosphere remains under study. The repercussions of this phenomenon in our technological infrastructure includes radio blackouts and errors in geopositional and navigation systems that are considered natural hazards in ever more countries. Occurrence frequency and intensity of the most energetic solar flares are been taken into account in national programs for civil protection in order to reduce the risk and increase the resilience from Space Weather events. In this work we use the statistical theory of extreme values as well as other statistical methods in order to asses the magnitudes of the most extreme solar flare events expected to occur in a given period of time. We found that the data set under study presents a dual tail behaviour. Our results show that on average we can expect one solar flare greater than X23 each 25 years, that is to say, one such event each two solar cycles.

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White House Releases National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan

Abstract: Key Points White House releases National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan Federal interagency space weather policy articulates the Federal Government role in space weather The strategy and action plan facilitate enhancement of national preparedness and resilience

Cited by 15 publications

References 3 publications

Exploring predictive performance: A reanalysis of the geospace model transition challenge

Exploring predictive performance: A reanalysis of the geospace model transition challenge

Space Weather Policy and Effects

Estimating the Maximum Intensities of Soft X-Ray Flares Using Extreme Value Theory

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