Which risks drive European natural gas bubbles? Novel evidence from geopolitics and climate

Su, Chi‐Wei; Qin, Meng; Chang, Hsu‐Ling; Țăran, Alexandra-Mădălina

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103381

Cited by 38 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…This output is in line with the results of the sensitivity analysis, which illustrated that the natural gas cost featured a relevant impact on the ammonia cost of the Baseline Scenario (Figure S2 of the Supporting Information). These results reinforce the idea that gray ammonia production costs in Spain/EU will be highly uncertain since 83% of the natural gas consumed in EU is imported from other countries and its cost is highly influenced by geopolitical situations. Besides these economic considerations, it is worth mentioning that ammonia industries in Spain are subject to the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) .…”

Section: Results and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Assessment of Green Ammonia Production To Promote Industrial Decarbonization in Spain

Vinardell,

Nicolas,

Sastre

et al. 2023

ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng.

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This article investigates the economic and environmental implications of implementing green ammonia production plants in Spain.To this end, one business-as-usual scenario for gray ammonia production was compared with three green ammonia scenarios powered with different renewable energy sources (i.e., solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and a combination of solar PV and wind). The results illustrated that green ammonia scenarios reduced the environmental impacts in global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and fossil resource scarcity when compared with conventional gray ammonia scenario. Conversely, green ammonia implementation increased the environmental impacts in the categories of land use, mineral resource scarcity, freshwater eutrophication, and terrestrial acidification. The techno-economic analysis revealed that the conventional gray ammonia scenario featured lower costs than green ammonia scenarios when considering a moderate natural gas cost. However, green ammonia implementation became the most economically favorable option when the natural gas cost and carbon prices increased. Finally, the results showed that developing efficient ammonia-fueled systems is important to make green ammonia a relevant energy vector when considering the entire supply chain (production/transportation). Overall, the results of this research demonstrate that green ammonia could play an important role in future decarbonization scenarios.

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Section: Results and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Assessment of Green Ammonia Production To Promote Industrial Decarbonization in Spain

Vinardell,

Nicolas,

Sastre

et al. 2023

ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng.

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“…Individual EU countries exhibit varying degrees of reliance on external energy carriers. For instance, Sweden, Belgium, and Portugal depend heavily on natural gas [26]. Nonetheless, most EU countries are to some extent dependent on external energy sources.…”

Section: Problems In the Diversification Of Energy Supply Sources In ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of the 2020–2022 Crises on EU Countries’ Independence from Energy Imports, Particularly from Russia

Rokicki,

Bórawski,

Szeberényi

2023

Energies

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The main objective of this article is to evaluate the repercussions of the crises resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on changes to the European Union’s reliance on energy raw material imports, particularly from Russia. Furthermore, several specific objectives are outlined: to ascertain the EU’s energy balance and any alterations therein, to identify changes in the concentration of energy raw material imports among EU countries during the crises, to determine the level and fluctuations in energy raw material import dependence within the EU and individual member states throughout the crises, and lastly, to assess changes in the concentration of energy raw material imports from Russia in EU countries during the crises. The research encompassed all 27 EU member states as of 31 December 2022, and the examination period spanned 2010 to 2022. The information sources include relevant literature on the subject and data sourced from Eurostat. In conducting the analysis and presenting the data, several methodologies are employed, including descriptive, tabular, and graphical techniques. Additionally, quantitative measures such as the Gini structure concentration coefficient and concentration analysis via the Lorenz curve are utilized. In the initial phase, an analysis of changes to the energy balance of the entire EU in the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine was carried out. Changes to the concentration of energy imports in EU countries during crises are also shown. Secondly, dependence on imports of individual energy resources for the entire EU was identified. Various changes in this relationship during crises are shown. If the dependence of the entire EU on the import of individual groups of energy resources from Russia were identified, changes in individual EU countries in this respect are indicated. Finally, the changes in the concentration of energy imports from Russia in the EU countries during the crises are shown. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the EU experienced a slight reduction in dependence on energy raw material imports. However, this reduction was short-lived and mainly attributed to the decrease in energy demand caused by the pandemic. Conversely, the war in Ukraine had a substantial impact, leading to a notable surge in energy raw material imports as a result of stockpiling efforts and the need to safeguard against further disruptions in the energy market. Notably, the EU’s reliance on energy imports from Russia was already considerable. Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, imports of oil, petroleum products, and solid fossil fuels experienced significant decline due to imposed sanctions. Nonetheless, restrictions on natural gas imports were comparatively less severe. In 2023, imports of crude oil instead of petroleum products practically ceased, while restrictions in the case of natural gas were not so drastic.

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“…On a global scale, the tight supply of the natural gas market and the continuous increase in demand have led to a continuous rise in global natural gas prices. Changes in natural gas prices often have a profound impact on economic activities [ [3] , [4] , [5] , [6] ]. In this case, the accurate prediction of natural gas prices (NGPs) can effectively reduce energy risks, provide an important investment and decision-making basis for governments, investors and regulatory agencies, and promote the healthy and rapid development of the natural gas market.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do multisource data matter for NGP prediction? Evidence from the G-LSTM model

Hao,

Shang,

Yuan

et al. 2024

Heliyon

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Which risks drive European natural gas bubbles? Novel evidence from geopolitics and climate

Cited by 38 publications

References 61 publications

Sustainability Assessment of Green Ammonia Production To Promote Industrial Decarbonization in Spain

Sustainability Assessment of Green Ammonia Production To Promote Industrial Decarbonization in Spain

The Impact of the 2020–2022 Crises on EU Countries’ Independence from Energy Imports, Particularly from Russia

Do multisource data matter for NGP prediction? Evidence from the G-LSTM model

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