Abstract:errors are our own. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.
“…Barillas and Shanken () argue that if an asset pricing model cannot price a factor excluded from that model, then a model augmented with that factor is a better model. Several recent studies use spanning regressions to evaluate factors (Barillas & Shanken, ; Gerakos & Linnainmaa, ; Hou, Mo, Xue, & Zhang, ). To gauge the marginal value of a new factor, we estimate a spanning regression by regressing that factor on the existing factors in an asset pricing model and test the significance of the model's alpha.…”
Section: Mispricing Growth Options and The Cross‐section Of Stock Rmentioning
Empirical research finds that stocks with low market‐to‐book (MTB) ratios outperform stocks with high MTB ratios. Rhodes‐Kropf, Robinson, and Viswanathan separate the MTB ratio into mispricing and growth options components. We report that the mispricing component, but not the growth options component, predicts abnormal returns for up to 5 years. We also find that the mispricing component, but not the growth options component, provides incremental information relative to existing asset pricing models. Moreover, after controlling for mispricing, value no longer beats growth. Overall, our evidence is consistent with a behavioral explanation of the value premium.
“…Barillas and Shanken () argue that if an asset pricing model cannot price a factor excluded from that model, then a model augmented with that factor is a better model. Several recent studies use spanning regressions to evaluate factors (Barillas & Shanken, ; Gerakos & Linnainmaa, ; Hou, Mo, Xue, & Zhang, ). To gauge the marginal value of a new factor, we estimate a spanning regression by regressing that factor on the existing factors in an asset pricing model and test the significance of the model's alpha.…”
Section: Mispricing Growth Options and The Cross‐section Of Stock Rmentioning
Empirical research finds that stocks with low market‐to‐book (MTB) ratios outperform stocks with high MTB ratios. Rhodes‐Kropf, Robinson, and Viswanathan separate the MTB ratio into mispricing and growth options components. We report that the mispricing component, but not the growth options component, predicts abnormal returns for up to 5 years. We also find that the mispricing component, but not the growth options component, provides incremental information relative to existing asset pricing models. Moreover, after controlling for mispricing, value no longer beats growth. Overall, our evidence is consistent with a behavioral explanation of the value premium.
“…We argue that two potential reasons may offer an explanation for this phenomenon. First, may contain only a small portion of common information about profitability and investment growth, which can be attributed to the relatively mediocre predictability of past profitability and the weak predictability of investment for expected profitability and investment growth (e.g., Fama & French, ; Hou, Mo, Xue, & Zhang, ; Hou & van Dijk, ). Therefore, it cannot give rise to a statistically significant reduction in the predictability of idiosyncratic returns.…”
Section: Idiosyncratic Momentum and The Cross Section Of Expected Retmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In addition, the joint hypothesis of George et al () indicates that stocks with low current investment and high idiosyncratic momentum should earn higher returns than those with high current investment and low idiosyncratic momentum. Hou et al () document that past profitability is an appropriate proxy for expected profitability. As such, we also examine whether stocks with high profitability and idiosyncratic momentum earn higher returns than those with low profitability and idiosyncratic momentum.…”
In this article, we evaluate the profitability and economic source of the predictive power of the idiosyncratic momentum effect, by using five popular asset pricing models to construct the idiosyncratic momentum. We show that all five idiosyncratic momentum strategies produce similar return predictability and consistently outperform the conventional momentum strategy in the cross-sectional pricing of equity portfolios and individual stocks. This positive effect of idiosyncratic momentum on returns is consistent with the investment capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Further analysis reveals that the firmlevel idiosyncratic momentum effect cannot extend to the aggregate stock market.
“…The second aim of our paper is to evaluate which characteristics provide independent incremental effects for the cross‐section of stock returns and which characteristics are subsumed. Recent developments of new asset pricing models based on characteristic‐sorted factors have led to a renewed interest in factor comparisons seeking to identify which factors provide the best description of expected returns (see Barillas & Shaken, 2018; Ahmed, Bu, & Tsvetanov, 2019; Hou, Mo, Xue, & Zhang, 2019). The idea behind most of these tests is to check whether a factor provides marginal explanatory power relative to the other factors considered in current or previous models.…”
We apply a new dummy‐variable method to examine which factor exposures (betas) and characteristics provide independent information for US stock returns in the context of the multifactor models of Hou, Xue, and Zhang and of Fama and French. We find that betas related to market, size, value, momentum, investment, and profitability factors are not priced. In contrast, firm characteristics related to size, value, investment, and profitability have significant and independent explanatory power, suggesting that they are important in determining expected returns. Finally, the cross‐sectional effect of momentum is subsumed when the return on equity is factored in.
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