Whether the Air Transport is Going through the Difficulties: Evidence from Dynamic Changes in Brent Oil Prices

Abstract

In 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 caused a sharp drop in international crude oil prices. The outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict in 2022 has also had a great impact on the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. So far as an important source of energy, the fluctuation of crude oil price is associated with the entire financial market. Therefore, this paper try to find how the air transport industry will going through the dynamic changes of its main source of energy——crude oil. Then the data of Brent oil price and air transportation industry index are selected from six months earlier before the Russian Ukrainian conflict broke out, used for constructing VAR model and ARMA-GARCH model with their logarithmic sequences. Through testing and observing the constructed Var model and ARMA-GARCH model, find the impact of international crude oil price changes on the yield and volatility of air transportation industry, so that the air transport industry can acquire the initiative of energy source.