Where to go? Migration and climate change response in West Africa

Filho, Walter Leal; Olaniyan, Olawale Festus; Alverio, Gabriela Nagle

doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2022.10.011

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…For arid climate of Mali, such a vicious circle of interrelated processes has disastrous consequences on the vegetation growth and as a consequence, on food production and security (Davies, 1996). Since recent decades, the climate setting in West Africa changed with the most notable trends in decrease of precipitation and rainfall, rise of temperature and warming trends, increase in drought frequency and dryland expansion (Leal Filho et al, 2022;Oguntunde et al, 2017Oguntunde et al, , 2006Sidibe et al, 2019). Many papers are published on climate change issues and reported consequences for biodiversity and socio-economic systems (Huang et al, 2016;Le Houérou, 1996;Yu et al, 2017).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Time Series Analysis of Landsat Images for Monitoring Flooded Areas in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali

Lemenkova,

Debeir

2023

Artificial Satellites

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This paper presents an R-based approach to mapping dynamics of the flooded areas in the Inner Niger Delta (IND), Mali, using time series analysis of Landsat 8–9 satellite images. As the largest inland wetland in West Africa, the habitats of IND offers high potential for biodiversity of the flood-dependent eco systems. IND is one of the most productive areas in West Africa. Mapping flooded areas based on satellite images enables to provide strategies for land management and rice planting and modelling vegetation types of IND. Our approach is based on using libraries of R programming language for processing six Landsat images, and each image was taken on November from 2013 to 2022. By capturing spatial and temporal structures of the satellite images on 2013, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022, the remote sensing data are combined to yield estimates of landscape dynamics that is temporally coherent, while helping to analyse fluctuations of spatial extent in fluvial wetlands caused by the hydrological processes of seasonal flooding. Further, by allowing packages of R to support image processing, an approach to mapping vegetation by NDVI, SAVI and EVI indices and visualising changes in distribution of different land cover classes over time is realised. In this context, processing Earth observation data by advanced scripting tools of R language provides new insights into complex interlace of climate-hydrological processes and vegetation responses. Our study contributes to the sustainable management of natural resources and improving knowledge on the functioning of IND ecosystems in Mali, West Africa.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Time Series Analysis of Landsat Images for Monitoring Flooded Areas in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali

Lemenkova,

Debeir

2023

Artificial Satellites

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“…This form of migration has been described as an adaptation strategy to deal with livelihood stresses (Azumah and Ahmed, 2023 [5]; Baada et al, 2021 [6]; Ibrahim and Mensah, 2022 [15]). Climate change-related stresses have been triggering the movement of pastoralists from Niger, Mali, and Northern Nigeria to neighbouring countries in search of water and grassland for their animals (Leal Filho et al, 2022 [23]). Climate-induced migration is likely to increase if people in Africa rely on agriculture for their livelihoods and local conditions continue to worsen.…”

Section: Climate-induced Migration: An Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematic Review of International and Internal Climate-Induced Migration in Africa

Ofori,

Bandauko,

Kutor

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Academics and policymakers have been paying close attention to the impact of climate change on migration in recent years. This phenomenon piqued interest because the factors driving environmentally induced migration are complex and manifold. Noticeably, there has been considerable scholarship on climate change and migration in Africa. However, there has not been a concerted effort to periodically review the existing literature to systematically document the state of scholarship. Using a standardized systematic review procedures to analyze 22 peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 and 2022, we found that climate change impacts migration in many complex and multilayered forms. Beyond what has already been established in the literature on climate-related migration such as environmental effects on migration; migration as an adaptation strategy; and the influence of environmental and non-environmental factors on migration; we also found that (1) studies on climate-induced migration in Africa intensely focused on SSA, suggesting an uneven study of the region, (2) heavily affected people tend to be immobile, and (3) young people have high migration intentions due to harsh climate insecurities. These findings require urgent government and stakeholder attention. Specifically, there is a need for scholarship to interrogate the climate change–immobility nexus in order to design appropriate in situ or ex situ adaptation strategies to support lives and livelihoods.

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“…Today, however, people from the sub-Saharan part of North Africa flow through the country and there may be illegal migration. The links of Egypt, Sudan and partly Libya are more to the West Asian region (Leal Filho et al, 2022). The nutrition of the population is also directly linked to access to drinking water sources and sanitation.…”

Section: An Analysis Of Wheat Trade In Egyptmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, the size of the population, the share of agriculture in GDP, fluctuations in agricultural production, displacement due to natural disasters, and the instability of exports or imports of goods and services put Egypt at risk. Thus, Egypt's economy may be seriously affected Socio-economic and climatic migration of the population from North Africa is mainly toward North America and Europe (UNDESA, 2020), while in West Africa it is mainly intra-regional migration (Leal Filho et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geopolitical risks for Egypt wheat supply and trade

Gebeltová

Hálová

Malec

et al. 2023

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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IntroductionSince 2005, Russia has established a stable position in Egypt's wheat imports, and after 2016, it became the largest global wheat exporter. The shift in Russian grain production has visibly affected wheat export destinations in favor of developing countries. This paper identifies the main determinants of wheat trade in Egypt concerning the primary risks associated with the war in Ukraine.MethodsThe paper utilizes time series analysis, index analysis, and an econometric model to define the statistical relationship between the quantity of wheat imported into Egypt and population development, wheat price, and wheat production.ResultsDespite increasing wheat production growth rates (1.9% p.a. over 2000–2020) and a growing population (2.01% p.a.), Egypt is unable to reduce its import dependence below 50% of total consumption. Undernourishment in Egypt remains at 5.2%–5.4% of the population. The econometric model shows that variables describing the evolution of production, population, and prices are statistically significant in relation to wheat imports. Egypt's wheat imports continue to increase even with rising prices, which is typical for developing countries. The war in Ukraine and associated commodity price increases have far-reaching implications for Africa's food security and supply systems.DiscussionEgypt's vulnerability to external influences, such as climate change, migration, rising commodity prices, and population growth, exacerbates the situation. Most African countries, including Egypt, struggle with the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also face rising food and energy prices, conflicts between the world's largest food producers, and increasing poverty rates. The research findings confirm that Egypt is among the highly vulnerable countries due to the war in Ukraine and the disruption of agricultural supply chains.

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Where to go? Migration and climate change response in West Africa

Cited by 7 publications

References 17 publications

Time Series Analysis of Landsat Images for Monitoring Flooded Areas in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali

Time Series Analysis of Landsat Images for Monitoring Flooded Areas in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali

A Systematic Review of International and Internal Climate-Induced Migration in Africa

Geopolitical risks for Egypt wheat supply and trade

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