“Where have all researchers gone?” Use and abuse of polls for the 2010 elections in Tanzania

Public Perception of Political Opinion Polls and Their Influence on People’s Voting Behavior: The Case of Mwanza City Residents

“…As one participant said, “Pollsters ‘cook’ the results, they are for the people in the system and it’s a trick CCM use to win elections. We want a pollster which cannot be influenced by the people in the system, a pollster we can trust.”Makulilo (2012) says that pollsters have never accurately predicted the outcome of an election in Tanzania and tend to favor certain political parties or candidates. Another participant stated, “I do not know what ways pollsters use to give information and get results, I have never been interviewed.”…”

“…This means that the principle of impartiality should be maintained. Poll researchers agree that questions must not be too general or insufficiently specific, use simple non-prejudicial language and avoid ambiguity or leading questions (Makulilo, 2012). This shows that the differences in findings between pollsters are often due to such technical details.…”

“…Opinion polling is a modern phenomenon in Tanzania (Makulilo, 2012). The rise of opinion polls can be attributed to media freedom and increase in democratic space.…”

“…This results in a situation where polls can be manipulated or conducted by a biased source, hence distorting the polls results. Makulilo (2012) explains that pollsters should not be afraid to report their findings if they use scientific methods to produce them. This implies that if polls are misrepresented, election outcomes could result from voters unduly influenced to vote for a party they would not otherwise have voted for.…”

“…In Tanzania, pollsters have never projected the final results of an election with any accuracy and they have been criticized for their sampling techniques, the choice of particular regions in which to conduct their study, the kind of questions asked, framing of questions, withholding results and simply being bias. As a result, polls are frequently criticized by opposition parties, academics, politicians, civil societies, and the general public (Makulilo, 2012).…”