When will China’s total water consumption reach the turning point? EKC simulation and influencing factors

Zhang, Hengquan; Long, Zhibo; Zhang, Chenjun

doi:10.1007/s11356-022-23560-1

Cited by 2 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…The total national water use is expected to reach an inflection point in 2037, with a water usage maximum of approximately 648 billion m 3 . By using scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, H. Zhang et al (2023) confirmed the water use Kuznets curve and proposed that the inflection point of water use in China had already occurred in 2013. Consequently, the peak water use in China continues to be a topic of discussion in the literature, requiring further investigation in light of present circumstances.…”

Section: Literature Review and Mechanism Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on statistics from China's Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), the country's water use historical maximum (WUHM) of 618.34 billion m 3 was attained in 2013, and has since exhibited a fluctuating pattern. In this regard, several scholars contend that China's total water usage (TWU) has already peaked (Zhang et al, 2023; C. Zhang, Zhao, et al, 2021). This implies that China's TWU will no longer increase and will gradually decrease.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting China's water use peak path under coordinating perspective from economic development and technological progress

Zhou

Zhang

et al. 2023

Natural Resources Forum

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China holds the distinction of being the foremost global consumer of water resources and contends with a significant level of water scarcity. In light of this quandary, China has been assiduously endeavoring to foster water conservation practices with the ultimate objective of reaching a peak point in water use. In this paper, we construct a framework for forecasting China's total water use (TWU) peak path. In this framework, we select influencing factors in terms of both economy and technology to forecast the peak path of China's TWU under six different scenarios, and analyze the economic and technological circumstances at the peak. Our findings indicate that China's TWU will persist in its upward trend based on both the high growth and business as usual scenarios. The projected peak period is estimated to transpire in 2037, 2032, 2030, and 2028, respectively, with the corresponding peak levels amounting to 644.03, 633.93, 625.79, and 620.92 billion m3. However, in the low growth scenarios, China's TWU reached its peak in 2013. The extent of economic development plays a pivotal role in determining the timing and manner of water usage peaking. Early peaking of water usage could potentially result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP). Furthermore, technological advancements hold the potential to facilitate a reduction in water use without requiring a significant trade‐off between resource conservation and economic development. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the average acreage of water used for irrigation on cropland, GDP, water use efficiency, and population contribute the most to TWU, while the increase in the proportion of industrial, service, and water‐saving irrigation area can reduce water use. Our analytical framework provides a commonly applicable solution for the water use forecast in areas seeking to reach the water use peak or to achieve sustainable development.

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Section: Literature Review and Mechanism Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting China's water use peak path under coordinating perspective from economic development and technological progress

Zhou

Zhang

et al. 2023

Natural Resources Forum

Self Cite

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“…The EKC theory implies that water resource problems caused in the initial stage could be alleviated or solved by further development, which could provide guidance for water policy design [18]. Therefore, numerous theoretical and empirical studies have tried to examine the possibility of the existence of an EKC between water use and growth, while their results generally differentiate between regions due to regional differences, which causes the EKC theory to remain controversial [19][20][21][22][23]. However, the existence of the EKC and the location of the EKC curve tipping point are meaningful for developing countries due to their serious water pressure and great development demand, necessitating further research on the EKC relationship between water use and growth in developing countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the basis of the existence of the EKC, the shape and characteristics of the EKC are a critical foundation for the designation of future water policy. The EKC having a different shape and characteristics implies a different evolutionary orientation of water pressure, which generally requires different response strategy [18][19][20]22,23]. However, most of existing research mainly focus on the EKC's existence at the national or regional level [3,4,18,20,23,24], and only a small number of studies analyze the characteristics of the EKC curve within a region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between Water Use and per Capita Income with Environmental Kuznets Curve of Developing Countries: A Case Study in Jiangsu Province, China

Zhang

Zhou

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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The relationship between economic growth and environmental variation is an important issue of sustainable development for human beings, especially in developing countries. However, developing countries usually use the standards of developed countries when dealing with environmental issues, which makes the relationship exhibit different characteristics than it does in developed countries. In order to realize a balance relationship between water use and income per capita in developing countries, a multivariable environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) simulation model based on the grey absolute correlation method was modified to improve the description of the balance relationship between water use and per capita income in the Jiangsu Province of China from 2005 to 2017. The results showed that the industrial and agricultural water uses first increased and then decreased, which agreed with an inverted “U” characteristic. The industrial water use was in the declining stage of the inverted “U” characteristic, while the agricultural water use was in a transition phase of the inverted “U” characteristic. However, the domestic water use showed an increasing trend, and it is difficult to estimate whether it showed an inverted “U” characteristic. Simultaneously, different watershed partitions in Jiangsu Province presented different EKC characteristics. In the three different watershed zoning regions of Jiangsu Province, the total water use of the Tai Lake Basin and the Yangtze River Basin exhibited the typical inverted “U” characteristic, while the Huai River Basin was just in the increasing stage. Moreover, the improved multivariable EKC model was suitable to describe the inverted U-shaped variation characteristics of water use, and the developed model outperformed the univariate EKC model in the study area. Based on the characteristics of the EKC, policy ideas for enhancing the coordination among water resources, the economy, and the ecological environment were proposed in order to achieve sustainable development.

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When will China’s total water consumption reach the turning point? EKC simulation and influencing factors

Cited by 2 publications

References 71 publications

Forecasting China's water use peak path under coordinating perspective from economic development and technological progress

Forecasting China's water use peak path under coordinating perspective from economic development and technological progress

Relationship between Water Use and per Capita Income with Environmental Kuznets Curve of Developing Countries: A Case Study in Jiangsu Province, China

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