When We're Sixty-Four: Opportunities and Challenges for Public Policies in a Population-Aging Context in Latin America

Abstract

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Le sophisme de la quantité fixe de travail: le cas de l'Amérique latine

“…Dans ce contexte, une sortie plus tardive du marché du travail est souvent vue comme un moyen d'améliorer le revenu perçu après la fin de la vie active (Munnell et Sass, 2008). En outre et au-delà de la question de la pérennité des systèmes de retraite, comme l'avancent Rofman et Apella (2020), la croissance économique est tributaire des dotations en main-d'oeuvre et en capital (physique et humain), et de la composante résiduelle qu'est la «productivité totale des facteurs». Le dividende démographique, c'est-à-dire le potentiel de croissance susceptible de se concrétiser durant les périodes où les actifs sont plus nombreux que les personnes à charge, entraîne une hausse temporaire de l'offre de main-d'oeuvre qui peut se traduire par une augmentation de la production et de l'épargne.…”

The fallacy of the lump of labour theory: Evidence for Latin America

“…Delaying retirement from the labour market is often seen as the means of increasing retirement income (Munnell and Sass 2008). In addition, and beyond the sustainability of pension systems, as Rofman and Apella (2020) argue, economic growth depends on the availability of labour and capital endowments, both physical and human, plus a residual component commonly known as "total factor productivity". The demographic dividendthe economic growth potential that can result from periods in which the share of the active population is larger than the share of the dependent population -produces a temporary increase in labour supply that may be useful for increasing production and savings, but once ageing accelerates, labour supply will tend to decline and, if capital accumulation and productivity increases do not become a driving force, GDP per capita may decline or stagnate.…”

Demographic Dividends and Economic Growth in Latin America

“…The demographic transition has affected all countries in the region, but the timing and pace have been different. According to Rofman and Apella (2020) fertility and mortality decline started early in the 1900s in some countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, and Uruguay with fertility rates equivalent to those of the replacement level, but began decades later in others with fertility rates somewhat higher than the replacement level, but with a decreasing trend. These variations resulted in significantly different age profiles across the continent, with some countries now completing their demographic transition while others are still in the early stages.…”