When Prisoners Get Out: The Impact of Prison Releases on Homicide Rates, 1975-1999

Kovandzic, Tomislav Victor; Marvell, Thomas B.; Vieraitis, Lynne M.; Moody, Carlisle E.

doi:10.1177/0887403404263443

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Specifically, each state has a unique counter variable with values 1 through 19, which correspond to the years covered in the data, with all other states coded as 0 for that state’s variable. This is consistent with prior studies using this type of model (e.g., Kovandzic, Marvell, Vieraitis, & Moody, 2004; Marvell & Moody, 1996).…”

Section: Methods and Datasupporting

confidence: 92%

State Residence Restrictions and Forcible Rape Rates

Socia

2013

Sex Abuse

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This study examines whether the presence of state residence restrictions resulted in changes in statewide rates of forcible rape. It builds on the limited geographic coverage of prior studies by including state-level Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data across 19 years for 49 states and the District of Columbia. It uses a quasi-experimental research method based on a longitudinal fixed-effects panel model design, which can help control for relatively static differences between states. Results indicate that when a state residence restriction was present, regardless of how it was measured, rates of UCR forcible rape were higher in the state than when the policy was not present. This suggests that residence restrictions, at least at the state level, are not useful as an overall crime prevention measure, but may be useful for increasing detection or reporting levels of such crimes. However, results also suggest that the size of the increase varied by whether the policy only applied to offenders with child victims or also included those with adult victims. Implications for research and policy are discussed.

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Section: Methods and Datasupporting

confidence: 92%

State Residence Restrictions and Forcible Rape Rates

Socia

2013

Sex Abuse

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“…It should be highlighted that studies focusing on recidivism are only measuring individuals who are detected committing crimes. As Kovandzic et al (2004) point out, parolees may be committing many crimes that are not detected by the authorities, which highlights the need to employ aggregated data for testing such an effect of parolees on neighborhood crime rates rather than arrests. As well, to the extent that parolees can affect neighborhood crime rates not only directly by committing crimes (which would be captured to some extent through a recidivism study) but also indirectly by reactivating network links that also lead others into committing crimes, this observation suggests a stronger effect on neighborhood crime than just the crimes committed by parolees.…”

Section: Hipp and Yatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Returning Parolees Affect Neighborhood Crime? A Case Study of Sacramento*

Hipp

Yates

2009

Criminology

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This study used a unique data set that combines information on parolees in the city of Sacramento, CA, over the 2003–2006 time period with information on monthly crime rates in Sacramento census tracts over this same period, providing us a fine‐grained temporal and geographical view of the relationship between the change in parolees in a census tract and the change in the crime rate. We find that an increase in the number of tract parolees in a month results in an increase in the crime rate. We find that more violent parolees have a particularly strong effect on murder and burglary rates. We find that the social capital of the neighborhood can moderate the effect of parolees on crime rates: Neighborhoods with greater residential stability dampen the effect of parolees on robbery rates, whereas neighborhoods with greater numbers of voluntary organizations dampen the effect of parolees on burglary and aggravated assault rates. Furthermore, this protective effect of voluntary organizations seems strongest for those organizations that provide services for youth. We show that the effect of single‐parent households in a neighborhood is moderated by the return of parolees, which suggests that these reunited families may increase the social control ability of the neighborhood.

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“…A review of the literature revealed only two published studies to date that have examined the macrolevel effects of prison releases on crime. Kovandzic et al (2004) regressed homicide rates on prison release rates, prison population levels, and numerous control variables using state panel data for the period 1975 to 1999. The results of their study provided no evidence of a significant positive relationship between prison releases and homicide.…”

Section: Prior Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Criminogenic Effects of Imprisonment: Evidence From State Panel Data, 1974–2002

Vieraitis¹,

Kovandzic²,

Marvell³

2007

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary: The heavy reliance on the use of incarceration in an attempt to address the crime problem has resulted in a dramatic growth in the number of state prisoners over the past 30 years. In recent years, however, a growing concern has developed about the impact that large numbers of offenders released from prison will have on crime rates. Using a state panel data set for 46 states from 1974 to 2002, this study demonstrates that although prison population growth seems to be associated with statistically significant decreases in crime rates, increases in the number of prisoners released from prison seem to be significantly associated with increases in crime. Because we control for changes in prison population levels, we attribute the apparent positive influences on crime that seem to follow prison releases to the criminogenic effects of prison. Policy Implications: Policy makers should continue to serve the public interest by carefully considering policies that are designed to reduce incarceration rates and thus assuage the criminogenic effects of prison. These policies may include changes in sentencing, changes in probation and/or parole practices, or better funding of reentry services prerelease and postrelease.

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When Prisoners Get Out: The Impact of Prison Releases on Homicide Rates, 1975-1999

Abstract: Although studies examining the relationship between prison populations and homi

Cited by 9 publications

References 39 publications

State Residence Restrictions and Forcible Rape Rates

State Residence Restrictions and Forcible Rape Rates

Do Returning Parolees Affect Neighborhood Crime? A Case Study of Sacramento*

The Criminogenic Effects of Imprisonment: Evidence From State Panel Data, 1974–2002

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