When it rains it pours? A time-series approach to the relationship between homicide and other adverse health phenomena

Abstract

Aim This paper aims to better understand the relationship between homicide and other public health outcomes, by studying their trends over time. Subject and methods Research in both criminology and public health has long identified that crime and violence tend to cluster together with adverse phenomena in the social and health domains. However, such work has relied primarily on cross-sectional analyses. Here, we instead study trends over time. We take data from the Netherlands, between 2000 and 2020, and ask whether homicide shows similar trends over time as other public health phenomena – such as smoking behaviour, alcohol use, child mortality, adolescent pregnancies, and suicide. Results We observe, first, that all of the phenomena – with the exception of suicide – declined over the period under study. We then employ a time series analysis to examine whether these trends arise independently, or whether they are the result of structural similarities between phenomena. Results showed that the decline in homicide rates is linked to a similar decline in adolescent pregnancies – the rates of these phenomena ‘move together’ during the period under study. Conclusion This work shows that the phenomenon of homicide shares structural similarities with teenage pregnancies – a decline in one is linked to a similar decline in the other. More generally, the current work furthers our understanding of the place of homicide in the domain of (public) health.

European Homicide Monitor: Research, New Developments, and Future

“…Homicide is the most serious form of lethal violence, and its prevention is thus a crucial aspect of criminal policy. Homicide rates, besides quantifying the prevalence of homicide in a given country, are also an indicator for other forms of non-lethal crimes and can be seen as the "tip of the iceberg" for the actual level of violence experienced by its residents (Liem, 2022;Nivette, 2011; van Breen, Devarakonda, & Liem, 2023; van Breen, Rabolini, & Liem, 2023). However, research in this domain is typically based on aggregated homicide rates.…”