When Is More Uncertainty Better? A Model of Uncertainty Regulation and Effectiveness

Abstract

Gibson for her prudent guidance through the review process and three anonymous reviewers for constructive feedback which greatly helped to shape this work. We also thank the participants of the conference "Creating Uncertainty: Benefits for Individuals, Teams, and Organizations" held in July 2018 at the ETH Zürich Centro Stefano Franscini in Ascona, Switzerland, and members of the Society of Organizational Behavior Australia for fruitful discussions of the ideas that are at the core of this paper.Regulating uncertainty 2 WHEN IS MORE UNCERTAINTY BETTER? A MODEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGULATION AND EFFECTIVENESS ABSTRACTAcross all fields of management research, uncertainty is largely considered an aversive state that people and organizations cope with unwillingly and generally aim to avoid. However, theories based on principles of uncertainty reduction overlook opportunities arising from uncertainty creation. Building on recent research in management, cognition and neuroscience, we expand current conceptualizations of uncertainty by introducing a model of uncertainty regulation where individuals employ opening and closing behaviors to achieve alignment between preferred and experienced levels of uncertainty and with exogenous requirements for effectiveness. We derive propositions for uncertainty regulation and work performance which extend existing concepts of adaptation in uncertain environments to include deliberate uncertainty creation and expansive agency. We discuss implications for dynamic models of agentic goal striving, organizational support for individuals' uncertainty regulation, and extensions to team-and organization-level phenomena.

Uncertainty in Aging and Lifespan Research: Covid-19 as Catalyst for Addressing the Elephant in the Room

“… Griffin and Grote (in press ) postulate that individuals not only self-regulate their efforts to achieve certain goals at work but also regulate the amount of uncertainty they are exposed to in this process. They outline a work performance model in which individuals align their preferred level of endogenous uncertainty—that is, uncertainty over which individuals have immediate control—with the requirements for uncertainty management inherent in the task they are trying to accomplish.…”

“… Griffin and Grote (in press ) developed their model of uncertainty regulation in line with the fundamental principles of self-regulation. Most theories in lifespan development, on which aging research is based, also build on self-regulation as the core process through which individuals plan and implement action in pursuit of valued goals, such as motivational theory of lifespan development ( Heckhausen, Wrosch, & Schulz, 2010 ), theory of selection, optimization, and compensation ( Baltes, 1997 ; Baltes & Baltes, 1990 ), and socioemotional selectivity theory ( Carstensen, 1991 , 2006 ; Carstensen, Isaacowitz, & Charles, 1999 ).…”

“…In Figure 1 , we illustrate how, in addition to past experiences, an individual’s uncertainty regulation might influence future time perspective. In the center of Figure 1 , key processes from Griffin and Grote’s (in press ) model are depicted, where individuals strive to maintain a desired level of uncertainty by engaging in either opening or closing behaviors. Opening behaviors are proactive and future-oriented and generate uncertainty as opportunities for learning and exploration of entirely new goals, such as changing one’s occupation.…”

“…We take these findings as inspiration into exploring the role of uncertainty in aging and lifespan research. Consistent with Griffin and Grote’s (in press ) uncertainty regulation model, we consider that individuals may not always reduce uncertainty, but regulate uncertainty towards an optimal level, which contributes to fostering a more positive future time perspective as a crucial resource for successful aging. We aim to delineate new avenues for aging and lifespan research regarding uncertainty and to promote a fuller understanding of individuals’ uncertainty management, which is particularly relevant in difficult times, such as the current pandemic.…”

“…In this commentary, we start with a brief introduction to Griffin and Grote’s (in press ) uncertainty regulation model. We then discuss future time perspective as a key component of self-regulatory processes in aging and position it within an uncertainty regulation framework.…”