Abstract:We compare contrarian to conformist advice, a contrarian expert being one whose preference bias is against the decision-maker’s prior optimal decision. Optimality of an expert depends on characteristics of prior information and learning. If either the expert is fully informed or fine information can be acquired cheaply, then for symmetric distributions F of the state, a conformist (contrarian) is superior if F is single peaked (bimodal). If only coarse information can be acquired, then a contrarian acquires mo… Show more
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