When ideas go viral -- complex bifurcations in a two-stage transmission model

Abstract

We consider the qualitative behavior of a mathematical model for transmission dynamics with two nonlinear stages of contagion. The proposed model is inspired by phenomena occurring in epidemiology (spread of infectious diseases) or social dynamics (spread of opinions, behaviors, ideas), and described by a compartmental approach. Upon contact with a promoter (contagious individual), a naive (susceptible) person can either become promoter himself or become weakened, hence more vulnerable. Weakened individuals become contagious when they experience a second contact with members of the promoter group. After a certain time in the contagious compartment, individuals become inactive (are insusceptible and cannot spread) and are removed from the chain of transmission. We combine this two-stage contagion process with renewal of the naive population, modeled by means of transitions from the weakened or the inactive status to the susceptible compartment. This leads to rich dynamics, showing for instance coexistence and bistability of equilibria and periodic orbits. Properties of (nontrivial) equilibria are studied analytically. In addition, a numerical investigation of the parameter space reveals numerous bifurcations, showing that the dynamics of such a system can be more complex than those of classical epidemiological ODE models.