When good evidence goes bad: The weak evidence effect in judgment and decision-making

Fernbach, Philip M.; Darlow, Adam; Sloman, Steven A.

doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2011.01.013

Cited by 33 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 18 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…A similar result to ours was observed by Fernbach, Darlow, and Sloman (2011), who found that the presence of a weak generative cause reduced participants' judgements of the likelihood of an outcome (effect). The explanation offered for this paradoxical finding was that people focus on the single focal cause provided when judging the conditional probability of the effect given the cause, P(EjC).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

James is polite and punctual (and useless): A Bayesian formalisation of faint praise

Harris

Corner

Hahn

2013

Thinking & Reasoning

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Damned by faint praise" is the phenomenon whereby weak positive information leads to a negative change in belief. This seemingly conflicts with normative Bayesian predictions, which prescribe that positive information should only exert a positive change in belief. We argue that the negative belief change is due to an inference from critical missing evidence; that is, an implicit argument from ignorance. Such an inference is readily incorporated within a version of Bayes' theorem incorporating the concept of epistemic closure. This reformalisation provides a general theoretical framework for the phenomenon that clearly outlines those conditions under which it should be observed, and its conceptual relationship with other argumentation phenomena.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

James is polite and punctual (and useless): A Bayesian formalisation of faint praise

Harris

Corner

Hahn

2013

Thinking & Reasoning

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On the other hand, our results indicate thatregardless of which exact mechanisms are seen as explaining ita picture on the package must be considered as rather a weak piece of evidence for actually finding the corresponding ingredient in the product, at least by experienced consumers. Fernbach, Darlow, and Sloman (2011) have shown that such weak evidence can sometimes have a negative effect on peoples' willingness to believe in a given assertion compared to no evidence at all. The degree of interaction between these seemingly opposing mechanisms clearly calls for additional research.…”

Section: Propositional Knowledge Versus Sensory Experiencementioning

confidence: 99%

Do natural pictures mean natural tastes? Assessing visual semantics experimentally

Smith

Barratt²,

Sørensen

2015

Cognitive Semiotics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A widespread assumption in Danish consumer law is that if the package of a food product carries a picture of a potentially taste-giving ingredient (say, a strawberry), then consumers will expect the corresponding taste to stem primarily from that ingredient rather than from artificial flavouring. However, this is not expected to be the case if the packaging carries only a verbal indication of the potential ingredient (say, the word

show abstract

“…These decisions should embrace a utility that is very strongly negative for any factor that leads to the conviction of an innocent person. There is a risk of overvaluing weak DNA evidence, and when evidence is weak, it is vital that this is conveyed .…”

Section: Glossarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Using the Nondonor Distribution to Improve Communication and Inform Decision Making for Low LRs from Minor Contributors in Mixed DNA Profiles

Schuerman

Kalafut

Buchanan

et al. 2020

Journal of Forensic Sciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The reporting of a likelihood ratio (LR) calculated from probabilistic genotyping software has become more popular since 2015 and has allowed for the use of more complex mixtures at court. The meaning of “inconclusive” LRs and how to communicate the significance of low LRs at court is now important. We present a method here using the distribution of LRs obtained from nondonors. The nondonor distribution is useful for examining calibration and discrimination for profiles that have produced LRs less than about 104. In this paper, a range of mixed DNA profiles of varying quantity were constructed and the LR distribution considering the minor contributor for a number of nondonors was compared to the expectation given a calibrated system. It is demonstrated that conditioning genotypes should be used where reasonable given the background information to decrease the rate of nondonor LRs above 1. In all 17 cases examined, the LR for the minor donor was higher than the nondonor LRs, and in 12 of the 17 cases, the 99.9 percentile of the nondonor distribution was lower when appropriate conditioning information was used. The output of the tool is a graph that can show the position of the LR for the person of interest set against the nondonor LR distribution. This may assist communication between scientists and the court.

show abstract

When good evidence goes bad: The weak evidence effect in judgment and decision-making

Cited by 33 publications

References 18 publications

James is polite and punctual (and useless): A Bayesian formalisation of faint praise

James is polite and punctual (and useless): A Bayesian formalisation of faint praise

Do natural pictures mean natural tastes? Assessing visual semantics experimentally

Using the Nondonor Distribution to Improve Communication and Inform Decision Making for Low LRs from Minor Contributors in Mixed DNA Profiles

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About