When Do Voter Files Accurately Measure Turnout? How Transitory Voter File Snapshots Impact Research and Representation

Kim, Seo-young Silvia; Fraga, Bernard L.

doi:10.33774/apsa-2022-qr0gd

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The official numbers of registered voters and ballot counts for the 2020 general election are available at the Secretary of State's website ( https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/Results/Abstract/2020/general/turnout.html). Because Colorado retains a snapshot of past elections at the certification point, attrition bias from transitory voter files should be minimal (Kim and Fraga, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partisanship is Why People Vote in Person in a Pandemic

Kim,

Bandreddi,

Alvarez

2024

Preprint

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Objective: The choice of voting methods has increasingly become a politicized, partisan issue. We ask: can a nationalized partisan rhetoric cast doubt on vote-by-mail (VBM) despite years of experience and a raging pandemic? Methods: Using 2020 general election records in Colorado, an established all-mail voting state, we analyze first the general choice of voting methods using supervised machine learning and then the choice to switch to in-person voting despite having used VBM in previous cycles. Results: The choice of voting modes is mainly habitual; local variations of COVID-19 hardly mattered. Republican partisanship played an important role in predicting "switchers" to in-person voting; the probability was 5.2% conditional on being a Republican as opposed to 1.9% for a Democrat. Conclusion: The results suggest that voting in person can be heavily polarized by partisan communication, despite being a health behavior in a pandemic and voters having experience with mail voting.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Partisanship is Why People Vote in Person in a Pandemic

Kim,

Bandreddi,

Alvarez

2024

Preprint

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“…Entropy balancing assigns control observations weights, such that the control group mirrors the treatment group along a set of identified covariates. Here, block groups where a police killing occurred after the election are weighted 5 Following the recommendation of Kim and Fraga (2022), we list the date of each snapshot in the Supplementary Material. 6 Although North Dakota does not have voter registration, L2 also makes a list of participating voters available for that state which we use for our turnout estimates.…”

Section: Testing the Effects On Voter Turnoutmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contested Killings: The Mobilizing Effects of Community Contact with Police Violence

Morris

Shoub

2023

Am Polit Sci Rev

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Recently, we have witnessed the politicizing effects of police killings in the United States. This project asks how such killings might (de)mobilize voters at the local level. We draw on multiple theoretical approaches to develop a theory of community contact with the police. We argue that when a highly visible event tied to government actions occurs—like a police killing—it can spur turnout. This is especially true where public narratives tie such events to government and structural causes. By comparing neighborhoods near a killing before and after election day, we estimate the causal effect on turnout. We find a mobilizing effect. These effects are larger when they “trend” on Google, occur in Black communities, or if the victim is Black. Proximity to a killing also increases support for abolishing the police. We conclude that police violence increases electoral participation in communities where narratives about racially unjust policing resonate most.

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“…Oleh karena itu, hingga tahun 2022 pemutakhiran data pemilih masih terus dilakukan hingga proses pemutakhiran daftar dan data pemilih Pemilu Serentak 2024. dilakukan, hal inilah yang menyebabkan adanya perbedaan kualitas data pemilih antara kompilasi data pemilih saat ini pada pemilu 2014 dan pemilu 2019, dimana tidak adanya proses pemutakhiran data pemilih secara berkelanjutan. Data/berkas pemilih yang terdaftar secara akurat merupakan sumber data penting dalam pemungutan suara (Silvia Kim & Fraga, 2022).…”

Section: Informanunclassified

Peran Lembaga Pengawas Pemilu: Data Pemilih Berkualitas menuju Pemilu 2024

Sultan,

Muhammad,

Alqarni

2023

J. Pemerintah. dan Polit.

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Performance as a result of work related to organizational goals such as quality, efficiency and other effectiveness criteria, the quality of voter data is one of the goals of holding elections. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which the performance of election supervisors influences the improvement of the quality of voter data in the South Sulawesi Province region. The research will be carried out using a qualitative approach, namely a more in-depth approach that will result in a more comprehensive study of existing phenomena, in addition to the method of collecting data by conducting interviews with informants and sources who are in direct contact with the object of research, there are 8 informants who consisting of election supervisors (Bawaslu), technical implementers (KPU) and people who have been registered as voters. The results of this study are to show that there is a positive and significant relationship between the performance of election supervisors in carrying out their duties and responsibilities with the quality of voter data, especially in the province of South Sulawesi, even though currently the quality of voter data has not yet reached a quality value because there are still many problems left from the start. election until the completion of the election so that it takes the active role of all parties such as society and government.

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When Do Voter Files Accurately Measure Turnout? How Transitory Voter File Snapshots Impact Research and Representation

Cited by 5 publications

References 33 publications

Partisanship is Why People Vote in Person in a Pandemic

Partisanship is Why People Vote in Person in a Pandemic

Contested Killings: The Mobilizing Effects of Community Contact with Police Violence

Peran Lembaga Pengawas Pemilu: Data Pemilih Berkualitas menuju Pemilu 2024

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