When Do Offenders Commit Crime? An Analysis of Temporal Consistency in Individual Offending Patterns

Abstract

Objectives Building on Hägerstrand's time geography, we expect temporal consistency in individual offending behavior. We hypothesize that repeat offenders commit offenses at similar times of day and week. In addition, we expect stronger temporal consistency for crimes of the same type and for crimes committed within a shorter time span. Method We use police-recorded crime data on 28,274 repeat offenders who committed 152,180 offenses between 1996 and 2009 in the greater The Hague area in the Netherlands. We use a Monte Carlo permutation procedure to compare the overall level of temporal consistency observed in the data to the temporal consistency that is to be expected given the overall temporal distribution of crime. Results Repeat offenders show strong temporal consistency: they commit their crimes at more similar hours of day and week than expected. Moreover, the observed temporal consistency patterns are indeed stronger for offenses of the same type of crime and when less time has elapsed between the offenses, especially for offenses committed within a month after the prior offense. Discussion The results are consistent with offenders having recurring rhythms that shape their temporal crime pattern. These findings might prove valuable for improving predictive policing methods and crime linkage analysis as well as interventions to reduce recidivism.

Construction and Analysis of Space–Time Paths for Moving Polygon Objects Based on Time Geography: A Case Study of Crime Events in the City of London

“…Time geography is one of these methods. It assumes temporal consistency of criminal behavior [31], which provides a theoretical basis for improving crime prediction, crime association analysis, and reducing recidivism. Applications of time geography in crime research include analysis of crime-related trajectories and crime point sets.…”

Do young women travellers really consider the risk of sexual harassment during night travel? Evening travel vs midnight travel

“…For young women travellers, they may perceive a higher level of benefits at midnight, compared to the evening. On the other hand, crime is constrained in time and space (van Sleeuwen et al , 2021). As mentioned, late-night bars and clubs are often crime spaces (Kitchen and Williams, 2010), so young female travellers may feel a higher level of risk when lingering in these places at midnight.…”

Traveling Alone or Together? Neighborhood Context on Individual and Group Juvenile and Adult Burglary Decisions

“…Further, groups of offenders may be more easily detected, so burglar groups may consciously target more disorganized neighborhoods than solo offenders. Prior studies of residence-to-crime distances have either excluded groups of offenders (e.g., Clare et al, 2009; Townsley et al, 2015), have ignored it (e.g., Bernasco, 2010a; Menting et al, 2016), or did not distinguish between co-offenders and offenders (e.g., Chamberlain & Boggess, 2016; van Sleeuwen, Steenbeek et al, 2021). The dearth of information pertaining to the types of neighborhoods targeted and co-offending is particularly problematic when distinguishing between adult and juvenile groups, as juveniles typically offend with peers (Carrington, 2009; Reiss & Farrington, 1991; Stolzenberg & D’Alessio, 2008).…”