When Do Displaced Persons Return? Postwar Migration among Christians in Mount Lebanon

Abstract

Under what conditions will forcibly displaced persons return to their original homes after wars end? We draw on theories of labor migration to show that even displaced persons who have positive feelings toward their original location may nevertheless choose to return as regular visitors rather than permanent residents unless the location offers attractive economic opportunities. Furthermore, we argue that violence can create negative emotions not only toward geographic locations of bloodshed but also against its perpetrators. After ethnic wars, the displaced may be unwilling to return to intermixed locations, exacerbating ethnic separation. We study postwar migration among Lebanese Christians displaced during the 1980s and identify economic conditions using exogenous price shocks for olive oil, a major local export. Among policy implications for economic reconstruction and transitional justice, our most important insight is that sometimes we should help the displaced in their new location rather than induce permanent return to their old homes.

Social Cohesion, Economic Security, and Forced Displacement in the Long-Run: Evidence from Rural Colombia

“…More theoretical and empirical work is needed on the effects of displacement, especially work that leverages research design strategies to identify displacement effects. One clear avenue for future research is work that identifies the determinants of IDP return, particularly research that distinguishes between the desire and ability of IDPs to return (Arias, Ibáñez and Querubin, 2014;Camarena and Hägerdal, 2020). Another avenue is to explore how IDPs navigate post-conflict programs and policies related to victim's reparations and restitution (Voytas, 2021;Steele et al, 2021).…”

“…Some recent contributions to this topic are:Vinck and Pham (2009),Camarena and Hägerdal (2020),Schwartz (2019),Ghosn et al (2011), andFakhoury (2021).13 Some recent exceptions look at the political effects of receiving reparations(Voytas, 2021;Steele et al, 2021).…”

Displacement and Return in the Internet Era: How Social Media Captures Migration Decisions in Northern Syria

“…Enabling return for the displaced requires a good understanding of how the displaced view their possibilities and options around return (Metivier et al (2018), Camarena and Hägerdal (2020)) as well as the broader effects of such return on postwar politics (Fabbe et al (2019)) or on security (Van Leeuwen and Van Der Haar (2016), Camarena (2016), Schwartz (2019)). Willingness to confront danger on the path to return may also be impacted by refugees' experiences of violence prior to return and belief in their ability to adapt to circumstances on the ground (Ghosn et al (2021)).…”

“…In doing so they find that conditions in a refugee's home country and access to information about those conditions are a primary driver in decision making (Alrababa'h et al (2020)). Indeed, economic factors may be even more vital to return choices than sentiment towards or connection with their home country (Camarena and Hägerdal (2020)). Refugees with strong ties to their home country may still choose to return as regular visitors rather than permanently if their new residence offers more attractive economic opportunities.…”

“…Refugees with strong ties to their home country may still choose to return as regular visitors rather than permanently if their new residence offers more attractive economic opportunities. Additionally, refugees are less likely to return to areas with ethic mixing when ethic tensions were a factor in initial violence and displacement (Camarena and Hägerdal (2020)).…”