When do armed revolts succeed: lessons from Lanchester theory

Atkinson, Michael P.; Gutfraind, Alexander; Kress, Moshe

doi:10.1057/jors.2011.146

Cited by 25 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 13 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Based also on a Lanchester setting, a model that accounts for the split between territorial regions loyal to the government and regions favoring the insurgents is described in [32]. Let B denote the government forces and R the insurgents.…”

Section: Controlling Territoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analytic Modeling of Insurgencies

Kress¹

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Legacy force-on-force models are symmetrical; they reflect the fact that the dynamics of both sides in the conflict is governed by similar rules. These models have also traditionally focused on the physical aspects of armed conflicts -fire, attrition, detection, movement, logistics, etc. Insurgency models are different in two key aspects: (a) they are asymmetrical and (b) they contain, in addition to the physical aspects, significant cognitive, social, cultural, political and economic factors. The reason for the asymmetry is the way insurgents evolve and operate, and the emergence of non-physical factors is due to the major role of civilians in such conflicts. This article focuses on analytic modeling of insurgencies and counterinsurgency operations, describing both the physical and non-physical components of such armed conflicts.

show abstract

Section: Controlling Territoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analytic Modeling of Insurgencies

Kress¹

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In both of these cases, the evolution of a resource (respectively, manpower and military expenditure) is described using equations which incorporate both internal and external influences. This general approachclosely related to the Lotka-Volterra model of predator-prey interactionhas since been refined and adapted to apply to a number of different types of conflict [3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A spatial model for conflict incorporating within- and between-actor effects

Knipl

Davies

Baudains

2017

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The application of ecological models to human conflict scenarios has given rise to a number of models which describe antagonistic relationships between adversaries. Recent work demonstrates that the spatial disaggregation of such models is not only well-motivated but also gives rise to interesting dynamic behaviour, particularly with respect to the spatial distribution of resources. One feature which is largely absent from previous models, however, is the ability of an adversary to coordinate activity across its various locations. Most immediately, this corresponds to the notion of 'support' -the reallocation of resources from one site to another according to need -which plays an important role in real-world conflict. In this paper, we generalise a spatiallydisaggregated form of the classic Richardson model of conflict escalation by adding a cross-location interaction term for the within-adversary dynamics at each location. We explore the model analytically, giving conditions for the stability of the balanced equilibrium state. We then also carry out a number of numerical simulations which correspond to stylised real-world conflict scenarios. Potential further applications of the model, and its implications for policy, are then discussed.

show abstract

“…Recent world events have attracted considerable interest, leading to the development of mathematical models designed to analyse the progress of insurgencies (Blank, 2008;Kaplan, 2010;Atkinson, 2012;Toft, 2012;MacKay, 2013). Similar approaches have been developed for domestic conflicts, including civil war (Garrison, 2008;Zhukov, 2013), guerrilla war (Dietchman, 1962;Intrilligator, 1988) and protest, coercion and revolution (Tsebelis, 1989).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamic competition model of regime change

Syms

Solymár

2015

Journal of the Operational Research Society

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A dynamic competition model for an oppressive government opposed by rebels is proposed, based on coupled differential equations with constant coefficients. Depending on their values, the model allows scenarios representing a stable, oppressive government and violent regime change.With constant coefficients, there can be no limit cycles. However, cycles emerge if rebels and governments switch characteristics after a revolution, if resources change hands and rebel motivations switch from grievance to greed. This mechanism is proposed as an explanation for the establishment of a new repressive regime after the overthrow of a similar regime.

show abstract

When do armed revolts succeed: lessons from Lanchester theory

Cited by 25 publications

References 13 publications

Analytic Modeling of Insurgencies

Analytic Modeling of Insurgencies

A spatial model for conflict incorporating within- and between-actor effects

A dynamic competition model of regime change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About