When Demography Met Social Simulation: A Tale of Two Modelling Approaches

Abstract

In this paper we present an agent-based model of a human population, designed to illustrate the potential synergies between demography and agent-based social simulation. In the modelling process, we take advantage of the perspectives of both disciplines: demography being more focused on matching statistical models to empirical data, and social simulation on explanations of social mechanisms underlying the observed phenomena. This work is based on earlier attempts to introduce agent-based modelling to demography, but extends them into a multi-level and multi-state framework. We illustrate our approach with a proof-of-concept model of partnership formation and changing health status over the life course. In addition to the agent-based component, the model includes empirical elements based on demographic data for the United Kingdom. As such, the model allows analysis of the demographic dynamics at a variety of levels, from the individual, through the household, to the whole population. We bolster this analysis further by using statistical emulation techniques, which allow for in-depth investigation of the interaction of model parameters and of the resulting output uncertainty. We argue that the approachalthough not fully predictive per se-has four important advantages. First, the model is capable of studying the linked lives of simulated individuals in a variety of scenarios. Second, the simulations can be readily embedded in the relevant social or physical spaces. Third, the approach allows for overcoming some data-related limitations, augmenting the available statistical information with assumptions on behavioural rules. Fourth, statistical emulators enable exploration of the parameter space of the underlying agent-based models.

Analysis of demographic processes in Poland and the Baltic States since the end of the XVIII century and forecast up to 2096

“…Similar methods of optimization of demographic forecasts are presented in a significant amount of the scientific research relying on agent-oriented approach (Silverman et al, 2013;Wu, Birkin, 2012;Ма-каров et al, 2014). This technique has been evaluated by us during preparation of the demographic forecast for the Central and Eastern Europe countries (Манаков, Суворков, 2017).…”

Approaching parallel computing to simulating population dynamics in demography

“…Kniveton et al (2011) proposed an agent-based approach to understanding environmental migration in Burkina Faso with the purpose of assisting policy makers. Silverman et al (2013) presented an example which uses agent-based models to evaluate family structures changing in the UK population and the health care provision.…”

Simulating Population Dynamics with an Agent Based and Microsimulation Based Framework

“…There has never been a generalization of the agent based model. Variety of models have been proposed in demographic context [24], some example are: family formation: Todd, Billari & Simao [17]; Billari [18]; Billari et al [19], [20]; Hills and Todd [21]; Aparicio-Diaz et al [22]; E. Frydenlund [23] [28], Household Dynamics: Geard et al [29]. As we can see that these models are specific in nature and the high-level framework which brings together various aspects of the agent based simulation is missing.…”