When climate change couples social neglect: malaria dynamics in Panamá

Hurtado, Lisbeth; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Calzada, José E.

doi:10.1038/emi.2014.41

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

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“…Modelling could also help to further assess the implications of the vulnerability to extreme climatic events associated with ENSO, which was associated with malaria transmission increases in Costa Rica during the ENSO hot phase. This same phenomenon has been observed in neighbouring nations (Bouma et al ., 1997; Bouma and Dye, 1997; Hurtado et al ., 2014, 2018). These results highlight the importance of studying the impacts of ENSO, and more generally natural catastrophes (Wallace et al ., 2018), especially in the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border, where the largest malaria outbreaks have been concentrated over recent times (Vigilancia de la Salud, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To identify potential breakpoints for the regime shifts in annual malaria cases, i.e. time points when the average number of malaria cases changed (Chaves et al, 2012(Chaves et al, , 2008Hurtado et al, 2014), we plotted the annual difference in the number of cases and estimated the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of these annual malaria case change distribution (Sokal and Rohlf, 1994). Values outside these extreme percentiles were identified as potential regime shifts and assumed to be the start and the end of the breakpoints unless the difference time series took longer to reach values near 0, a time-point which was then assumed to be the breakpoint end, the time between start and end of a breakpoint representing transient dynamics between two continuous regimes (Scheffer, 2009;Hastings et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We also reviewed policy documents available at Costa Rica`s Ministry of Health. In addition to events listed in Table 1, we also considered the impacts of different El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases on malaria transmission, provided this large scale climatic phenomenon has been identified as a major driver of malaria epidemics in the region (Bouma et al ., 1997; Bouma and Dye, 1997; Hurtado et al ., 2014, 2018). We classified every year as belonging to a given ENSO phase (hot, cold, normal) if such phase was present in two or more quarters of the year according to the classification by Wolter and Timlin (2011) for the period between 1913 and 1952.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Health policy impacts on malaria transmission in Costa Rica

Chaves¹,

Rojas²,

Prado³

et al. 2020

Parasitology

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Costa Rica is near malaria elimination. This achievement has followed shifts in malaria health policy. Here, we evaluate the impacts that different health policies have had on malaria transmission in Costa Rica from 1913 to 2018. We identified regime shifts and used regression models to measure the impact of different health policies on malaria transmission in Costa Rica using annual case records. We found that vector control and prophylactic treatments were associated with a 50% malaria case reduction in 1929–1931 compared with 1913–1928. DDT introduction in 1946 was associated with an increase in annual malaria case reduction from 7.6% (1942–1946) to 26.4% (1947–1952). The 2006 introduction of 7-day supervised chloroquine and primaquine treatments was the most effective health policy between 1957 and 2018, reducing annual malaria cases by 98% (2009–2018) when compared with 1957–1968. We also found that effective malaria reduction policies have been sensitive to natural catastrophes and extreme climatic events, both of which have increased malaria transmission in Costa Rica. Currently, outbreaks follow malaria importation into vulnerable areas of Costa Rica. This highlights the need to timely diagnose and treat malaria, while improving living standards, in the affected areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Health policy impacts on malaria transmission in Costa Rica

Chaves¹,

Rojas²,

Prado³

et al. 2020

Parasitology

Self Cite

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“…Thus, if we take into account that in many regions around the world, there are four seasons, it seems logical to include the variability of the environment (Shobugawa et al 2017;Vega et al 2017;Paiva et al 2012;Ferrero et al 2016;Noyola and Mandeville 2008;Traoré and Sangaré 2017;Corberán-Vallet et al 2018). Moreover, several researchers have remarked and studied the effects of climate change on diseases and ecology (Donaldson 2006;Fagan et al 2014;Sengupta and Das 2019;Sekerci and Petrovskii 2015;Hurtado et al 2014;Okuneye et al 2018;Posny and Wang 2014;Codeço 2001). Then, one approach to include the effect of the weather in the aforementioned mathematical models is to allow time varying parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 2014 ; Sengupta and Das 2019 ; Sekerci and Petrovskii 2015 ; Hurtado et al. 2014 ; Okuneye et al. 2018 ; Posny and Wang 2014 ; Codeço 2001 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear dynamics of a new seasonal epidemiological model with age-structure and nonlinear incidence rate

2021

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In this article, we study the dynamics of a new proposed age-structured population mathematical model driven by a seasonal forcing function that takes into account the variability of the climate. We introduce a generalized force of infection function to study different potential disease outcomes. Using nonlinear analysis tools and differential inequalities theorems, we obtain sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a positive periodic solution. Moreover, we provide sufficient conditions that assure the global attractivity of the positive periodic solution. Numerical results corroborate the theoretical results in the sense that the solutions are positive and the periodic solution is a global attractor. This type of models are important, since they take into account the variability of the weather and the impact on some epidemics such as the current COVID-19 pandemic.

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Impact of environmental changes on Dermatology

Haddad

Mendes

Talhari

et al. 2021

Anais Brasileiros de Dermatologia

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Urbanization, pollution and the modification of natural landscapes are characteristics of modern society, where the change in human relations with the environment and the impact on biodiversity are environmental determinants that affect the health-disease relationship. The skin is an organ that has a strong interface with the environment and, therefore, the prevalence patterns of dermatoses may reflect these environmental changes. In this article, aspects related to deforestation, fires, urbanization, large-scale agriculture, extensive livestock farming, pollution and climatic changes are discussed regarding their influence on the epidemiology of skin diseases. It is important that dermatologists be aware of their social responsibility in order to promote sustainable practices in their community, in addition to identifying the impacts of environmental imbalances on different dermatoses, which is essential for the prevention and treatment of these diseases.

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When climate change couples social neglect: malaria dynamics in Panamá

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Health policy impacts on malaria transmission in Costa Rica

Health policy impacts on malaria transmission in Costa Rica

Nonlinear dynamics of a new seasonal epidemiological model with age-structure and nonlinear incidence rate

Impact of environmental changes on Dermatology

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