When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

Sterl, Andreas; Severijns, Camiel; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Hazeleger, Wilco; Oldenborgh, G. J. van; Broeke, Michiel van den; Burgers, Gerrit; Hurk, Bart van den; Leeuwen, Peter Jan van; Velthoven, P. van

doi:10.1029/2008gl034071

Cited by 182 publications

(169 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The overall most consistent trends toward increases in heavier precipitation events are found in North America (Peterson et al 2008;DeGaetano 2009;Pryor et al 2009;Gleason et al 2008). Models project substantial increases in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century with the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells and heat waves increasing over most land areas (Kharin et al 2007;Sterl et al 2008;Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2012). In addition, future climate simulations generally project increases in the greatest precipitation events over northwestern and northeastern US (Meehl et al 2005).…”

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confidence: 85%

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Monier

Gao

2014

Climatic Change

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In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.

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confidence: 85%

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Monier

Gao

2014

Climatic Change

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“…In the ESSENCE project (Sterl et al, 2008) the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model (Jungclaus et al, 2006) has been used to simulate the climate from 1950 to 2100, assuming future greenhouse gas concentrations to follow the SRES A1b scenario (Nakicenovic et al, 2000). To assess the full range of internal variability and to obtain good statistics for extreme cases, 17 integrations have been done, each starting from slightly different initial conditions.…”

Section: Essencementioning

confidence: 99%

An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

et al. 2009

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Abstract. The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950-2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

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“…Existing projections of extreme (1:10,000 year) conditions with the ESSENCE ensemble (Sterl et al 2008), based on climate scenario SRES A1b, do not change with respect to present-day climate in front of the Dutch coast (see Sterl et al (2009) for storm surge levels and De for wave height and period). It is, furthermore, shown that the change in offshore wave conditions is small when the water depth is increased by 1 m; therefore, we assumed unaltered offshore wave and storm surge characteristics.…”

Section: Hydrodynamical Boundary Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the 17-member CMIP3 ESSENCE ensemble (Sterl et al 2008), the 1:10,000-year storm surge (Sterl et al 2009) and wave extremes are not projected to change along the Dutch coast. A generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis on annual maximum daily average wind speed data from 12 general circulation models (GCMs) on two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) did not reveal any coherent changes in annual maximum wind speeds, or in wind speeds with lower return frequencies above the North Sea basin (De Winter et al 2013).…”

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confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis of climate change impacts on dune erosion: case study for the Dutch Holland coast

Winter

Ruessink

2017

Climatic Change

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Climate change could have large implications for the management of dunefringed coasts. Sea level rise and changes in storm wave and surge characteristics could lead to enhanced dune erosion and hence a decrease in safety levels. Here, we use the processbased model XBeach to quantify the impact of sea level rise and changing hydrodynamic boundary conditions on the magnitude of future dune erosion at two locations along the Dutch coast. We find a linear relation between sea level rise and dune erosion volume, the exact linear relation being dependent on the local hydrodynamical boundary conditions. The process driving higher erosion appears to be sea level rise, allowing waves to attack the dune at a higher level. Additional simulations illustrate that a change in the offshore wave angle, potentially produced by changes in storm tracks, could influence the erosion volume with the same order of magnitude as sea level rise. Finally, simulations with different mitigation options (i.e., sand nourishments) illustrate the strong effect of the location of the added sand to the reduction in the dune erosion volume.

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When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

Cited by 182 publications

References 16 publications

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

Sensitivity analysis of climate change impacts on dune erosion: case study for the Dutch Holland coast

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