When Can Schools Affect Dropout Behavior? A Longitudinal Multilevel Analysis

Abstract

The National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS) database was used to examine student and school factors associated with students dropping out in different grades. Specifically, a hierarchical logistic model was used to address three issues. First, are early (middle school) and late (high school) dropouts equally affected by traditionally defined risk factors? Second, do school-level factors, after controlling for differences in enrollment, account for between-school differences in school dropout rates, and can these school factors mediate individual student risk factors? Third, what impact does early predicted risk have on the likelihood of dropping out late? Results showed that the mix of student risk factors changes between early and late dropouts, while family characteristics are more important for late dropouts. Consistent with previous research, the results also indicated that being held back is the single strongest predictor of dropping out and that its effect is consistent for both early and late dropouts. School factors can account for approximately two thirds of the differences in mean school dropout rates, but they do a poor job of mediating specific student risk factors. The results indicate as well that early predicted risk, at both the student level and the school level, significantly affects the odds of a student dropping out late.

Exploring the Underachievement Gap

“…Our research suggests that policy makers, school leaders, and higher education decision makers should craft postsecondary enrollment policies and programs with sufficient flexibility to allow for the individualization of said policies and practices based on local conditions. Also in concert with our prior work and the findings of others (Allensworth, 2005;Goldschmidt & Wang, 1999), the results here point to a variable that consistently predicts educational success-being held back. Conceptually, it is not surprising that being held back would significantly predict both dropout behavior and enrollment in college, as completing high school is a gate through which students pass on the way to college.…”

Freshman Year Dropouts: Interactions Between Student and School Characteristics and Student Dropout Status

“…However, the relation between gender and minority group status and dropping out seems to be somewhat contingent on whether the economic, familial, and academic situation of students is taken into account. In studies where a range of background factors is considered, males and students from minority groups tend to be either equally or less likely relative to their counterparts to disengage from the educational process (Goldschmidt & Wang, 1999;Lee & Burkam, 2003;NCES, 1992).…”

“…In particular, students from economically disadvantaged backgrounds, students from nontraditional (i.e., single or stepparent) families, and students who experience academic difficulties (e.g., poor grades, low test scores, grade retention, high absenteeism) drop out at higher rates relative to their higher achieving and more demographically advantaged peers (Astone & McLanahan, 1991;Barro & Kolstad, 1987;Garnier, Stein, & Jacobs, 1997;Goldschmidt & Wang, 1999). Similarly, males and students from ethnic and language minority groups have also been found to have higher dropout rates (Ekstrom et al, 1986; National Center for Education Statistics [NCES], 1992;Pallas, 1987;Rumberger, 1995).…”

Freshman Transition for At-Risk Students

“…Furthermore, repeating a grade in elementary school was associated with a substantial increase in the odds of dropping out of school (Roderick, 1994). Goldschmidt and Wang (1999) also noted that being held back at least once doubles the probability that a student drops out as early as middle school. More recent research also provides little support for student grade retention.…”