When Can Benefit–Cost Analyses Ignore Secondary Markets?

Kotchen, Matthew J.; Levinson, Arik

doi:10.1017/bca.2022.22

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 39 publications

(84 reference statements)

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“…The costs and benefits associated with each proposed scenario were quantified in monetary terms using the formula employed by Miranda et al (2012), Dahlui et al (2021), and Kotchen & Levinson (2023), which is represented by Equation 9.…”

Section: Epidemiological Scenario (Hlb Without Pnf)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible economic losses on the oranges production chain of Peru due to introduction of Huanglongbing (HLB): Simulation of prospective scenarios to 2045

Mercado,

Guadalupe,

Vega Alegre

2023

Sci. agropecu.

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Huanglongbing (HLB) is a citrus disease known for causing significant production losses, and its potential introduction into Peru looms on the horizon. The aim of this study was to assess the potential economic losses within the Central Jungle's orange production chain, specifically in the Region Junín. This assessment involved simulating the spread of HLB under prospective scenarios spanning from 2026 to 2045, aiming to estimate the cost-benefit of preventing these losses through the implementation of a national phytosanitary program (PNF). The methodology employed in this study comprised administering questionnaires to local growers and estimating economic losses across three scenarios. The first scenario assumed a baseline production trend without HLB presence, while the second scenario considered an epidemiological situation with HLB but without the implementation of a PNF. The third scenario factored in HLB with varying degrees of adoption among PNF-affiliated growers. The findings highlight several risk factors contributing to the potential spread of HLB in Junín. The epidemiological model reveals that HLB can swiftly render young trees unproductive. Cumulatively, economic losses from 2026 to 2045 could reach a staggering US$ 371,146 thousand if no intervention takes place. However, this figure could be significantly reduced to US$ 44,890 thousand if 100% of growers embrace the PNF. Such public policy measures would not only prevent production losses but also generate substantial social benefits. These scenarios underscore the stark negative impacts HLB could inflict on the local orange production chain. The implementation of the PNF proves to be a critical intervention, preventing production losses, preserving jobs, and safeguarding related economic activities. Without timely public intervention, the economic losses at stake could render the agribusiness sector unsustainable.

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Section: Epidemiological Scenario (Hlb Without Pnf)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible economic losses on the oranges production chain of Peru due to introduction of Huanglongbing (HLB): Simulation of prospective scenarios to 2045

Mercado,

Guadalupe,

Vega Alegre

2023

Sci. agropecu.

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Economic impact and food security effects of trade disruptions in agricultural products for Sweden

Gren,

Jonasson,

Andersson

et al. 2024

Agric & Food Secur

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The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conditions in 2022–2023 highlighted the vulnerabilities of food supply chains to trade disruptions in agricultural inputs and foods, with the ensuing economic effects on producers and consumers. This study calculated the impact of various disruptions in the trade of agricultural inputs and outputs for Swedish producers and consumers and for food security. To this end, a mathematical programming model of the food sector with a spatial dimension was applied, which accounts for adjustments and interactions between producers and consumers of food. Food security is measured in terms of the self-sufficiency ratio, the ability to produce minimum dietary needs, and economic access for low-income households. The trade scenarios included disruptions to imports of agricultural inputs (fertilisers, fuel, feed, pesticides and foreign labour) and foods. The results showed that the economic effects for producers can be considerable, with a reduction in producer surplus by up to 75%. The decrease in consumer surplus is smaller, amounting to a maximum decrease of 21%. The self-sufficiency ratio and the ability to produce minimum dietary needs can be reduced by 55% and 61%, respectively, but may rise if the disruption to feed imports increases. Economic access to foods is slightly decreased in all scenarios. These results showing different impacts of trade disruptions on producers and consumers and food security metrics highlight the need to undertake extensive assessments to determine whether and how to prevent and mitigate their effects. The economic effects on producers and consumers and the associated impacts on food security are likely to differ, which affects the selection and targeting of policies, such as compensation for economic losses and promotion of food security.

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When Can Benefit–Cost Analyses Ignore Secondary Markets?

Cited by 2 publications

References 39 publications

Possible economic losses on the oranges production chain of Peru due to introduction of Huanglongbing (HLB): Simulation of prospective scenarios to 2045

Possible economic losses on the oranges production chain of Peru due to introduction of Huanglongbing (HLB): Simulation of prospective scenarios to 2045

Economic impact and food security effects of trade disruptions in agricultural products for Sweden

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