When Brands Go Dark: A Replication and Extension

Abstract

The value of mass media advertising can be demonstrated by quantifying what happens when it is removed. The current study does this, extending the work of Hartnett, Gelzinis, Beal, et al. (2021) by documenting changes in market share for 365 U.S. brands from 22 consumer goods categories that stopped advertising for at least one year. Market shares of brands without advertising declined, on average, at a steady rate year over year. On average, market share declines were more common and substantial among small brands and those losing share before advertising ceased. That prior findings generalize to a new market and many new categories increases confidence in the results.• The study expands and adds robustness to prior evidence that when brands stop advertising, declines become more common and more significant, on average, as time increases.• Using market share (where prior research used sales), losses were quantified as declining by 10 percent after one year, 20 percent after two years, and 28 percent after three years relative to the last advertised year, on average.• Such quantification facilitates financial forecasting and portfolio decision making concerning advertising cessations.• Brand size and market share trajectory before stopping advertising affect the rate of market share decline, so they should be factored into advertising cessation decisions.• The magnitude of market share decline varied considerably across categories. Consumer goods with longer interpurchase intervals appear to suffer greater average decreases after three years without advertising.