When and how US dollar shortages evolved into the full crisis? Evidence from the cross-currency swap market

Baba, Naohiko; Sakurai, Yuji

doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.10.030

Cited by 12 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Finally, to identify the starting date of crisis or turmoil in CIP deviations, this paper closely follows the method used in Baba and Sakurai () and identifies the dates of regime switches in the time series of CIP deviations. González‐Hermosillo and Hesse () use a Markov regime‐switching technique with three different volatility states (low, medium and high) and show that the euro‐dollar FX swap market entered the high volatility state immediately after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dislocations in the Won‐dollar Swap Markets During the Crisis of 2007–2009

Baba¹,

Shim²

2014

Int. J Fin Econ

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We analyse dislocations in the foreign exchange swap and cross-currency swap markets between Korean won and US dollar from 2007 to 2009. A regime-switching analysis of deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) identifies a crisis period starting in June 2007. Using an EGARCH model, we find that volatility index and the credit default swap spreads of Korean and US banks are the main factors explaining CIP deviations. We show that the Bank of Korea's US dollar loans of the proceeds of swaps with the US Federal Reserve were effective in reducing CIP deviations, whereas the provision of funds using its foreign reserves was not. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 1 When foreign banks' lending to these countries contracted sharply around the fourth quarter of 2008, domestic banks faced difficulties in borrowing in the interbank market as well as much higher costs in obtaining short-term dollar (or euro/Swiss franc in central and eastern Europe) financing through FX swaps. 2 In particular, many of these banks experienced an abrupt drop in gross international claims, which are the sum of cross-border claims in all currencies and local claims in foreign currencies of international banks. 3 To ameliorate the dislocations in their FX swap and cross-currency swap markets, central banks in western Europe (Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the euro area (for the European Central Bank)), North America (Canada), Asia (India, Japan, Korea and Singapore), Latin America (Brazil, Chile and Mexico), central and eastern Europe (Poland and Hungary) and the Pacific (Australia and New Zealand) either used their own foreign reserves or established swap lines with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) or other central banks.Like many other emerging market economies, Korea relies heavily on US dollar funding through foreign banks and investors, but it does not have deep FX swap and cross-currency swap markets. This turned out to be a major vulnerability during the recent financial crisis, as Korea experienced the most severe dislocations in the FX swap market of any emerging market economy. In response, the Korean authorities took several measures to stabilise their foreign currency funding market. In particular, they drew on Korea's swap line with the Fed and used the country's own foreign reserves to provide foreign currency liquidity to the private sector. Korea's experience thus provides useful lessons on the effectiveness of these two different policies in mitigating foreign currency funding problems. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICSInt. J. Fin. Econ. 19: 279-302 (2014) Published online 14 March 2014 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI: 10.1002DOI: 10. /ijfe.1492 In this paper, we examine what are the determinants of deviations from covered interest parity (CIP deviations) in the won-dollar swap markets between January 2005 and December 2009. We are especially interested in whether the aforementioned two policies adopted during the recent crisis were effective in alleviati...

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dislocations in the Won‐dollar Swap Markets During the Crisis of 2007–2009

Baba¹,

Shim²

2014

Int. J Fin Econ

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Finally, to identify the starting date of crisis or turmoil in CIP deviations, this paper closely follows the method used in Baba and Sakurai (2011) and identifies the dates of regime switches in the time series of CIP deviations. Along similar lines, González-Hermosillo and Hesse (2009) use a Markov regime-switching technique with three different volatility states (low, medium and high), and show that the euro-dollar FX swap market entered the high volatility state immediately after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%