Wheels of Time and the Interdependence of Value Change in America

Abstract

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. . The MIT Press and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the editors of The Journal of Interdisciplinary History are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Journal of Interdisciplinary History.If all social science research is inquisitive, many value studies are surely meddlesome. When harmless, knowledge of the next man's follies is but an occasion for merriment. When critical, such information first provides opportunities for scorn and then justifications for the exorcism of the poor devil's evil values. The never flagging interest in descriptions of wayward youth, deprived families, races, and other undesirables comes therefore as no great surprise, although the practical implications of such investigations remain rarely far afield.In opposition to description, explanation appears in a different light. Here, the interest is in the why and how of value contrasts among peoples of all kinds and the way values affect their lives. Causal queries, then, are far more philosophical and so are questions about the form or shape of value change. As an example of the latter, consider the question: In values, is there progress? This is to ask not only whether our actions approach some ideal and universal goal but, more importantly, whether these goals themselves continuously improve, e.g., from barbaric to ever more civilized. Or, contrarily, is value change a process of decay?With these questions in mind, it is my contention that the history of value change is neither progressive nor regressive, but basically cyclical. I shall therefore try to demonstrate the plausibility of this assertion; relate cycles of change in a variety of values, thereby delineating the underlying structure of the cyclical findings, or The Wheel of Time; attempt to interpret the meaning of the wheel; and then conclude with a speculation about its possible causes. J. Zvi Namenwirth is Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of Connecticut, Storrs. He is the author of several articles on computer analysis of social and political problems. offered assistance in computations and other research procedures.This content downloaded from 169.229.32.137 on Thu, 8 May 2014 17:34:11 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions I J. ZVI NAMENWIRTH VALUES: CONCEPT AND ASSESSMENTThe definition and assessment of value change determines to some extent the findings, and an explication is therefore in order. For this exposition, the distinction between goods and values is basic. Goods are the available resources of a society at any one time. These resources are not restricted to material commodities, but also include such things as friendship, recognition, health, or power. Val...

Measurement models for content analysis

“…With respect to content analysis, external validity means that content variables are related to other phenomena in accordance with a theory or model. In a number of studies involving cultural indicators based on long series of documents, the results have been consistent with pertinent interpretations of social, political and economic change in America (Namenwirth, 1969b(Namenwirth, , 1973Namenwirth and Lasswell, 1970), Great Britain (Weber, 198 1, 1982a), Sweden (Rosengren, 1981) and Germany (Mohler, 1978;Klingemann et al, 1982b). In addition to external construct validity, measures may have internal construct validity.…”

“…These studies have analyzed American (e.g., Namenwirth, 1969bNamenwirth, , 1973, British (e.g., Weber, 1978Weber, , 1981Weber, , 1982a, Dutch (Gallhofer, 1978;Gallhofer andSaris, 1979a,b, 1980;Saris and Gallhofer, 198 l), Swedish (Rosengren,198 1) and German (Mohler, 1978;Klingemann et al, 1982b) texts. Taken as a whole, these studies indicate that content analysis may be the preferred, indeed, in some cases, the only way to generate valid and reliable quantitative indicators spanning long periods of time.…”

“…Details and problems of dictionary construction are discussed later in this paper. An important use of content analysis is the generation of reliable and valid cultural indicators (e.g., Rosengren, 198 1;Namenwirth, 1969aNamenwirth, ,b, 1970Namenwirth, , 1973Namenwirth andBibbee, 1973, 1976;Namenwirth and Weber, 1980;Weber, 1981Weber, , 1982aMohler, 1978;Klingemann et al, 1982a,b). In literate societies, a large portion of culture is represented in texts such as newspapers, political documents, books, and scripts from radio, television and film.…”

The Importance of Neglect in Policy-Making

“…Empirical analyses of the development of foci in the speeches of politicians during the period 1815(Namenwirth, 1973 and comparative analysis of policy processes in the European Union as a whole, which will be presented in the next chapters, suggest that a specific order of attention can be expected. From these studies, the recurring order seems to be that short-term goal achievement is the first demand addressed.…”

Zyklen der Bildungsexpansion 1870–1990

“…Auch der Wandel politischer Ideolo gien wurde analysiert, um die zyklische Wieder kehr von Liberalismus und Konservatismus nach zuweisen. Für die USA und Großbritannien haben Namenwirth (1973) und Weber (1981 gezeigt, daß Konservatismus, Traditionalismus, Liberalismus und Internationalismus einen "politischen Zyklus" bilden, der sich im Abstand von 50 bis 60 Jahren wiederholt und parallel zu Kondratieffs langen Wellen verläuft (Bürklin 1987). Die im Konzept der langen Wellen angelegte Möglichkeit, die lang fristigen Wandlungsprozesse kapitalistischer Ge sellschaften zu analysieren, hat ihre Faszinations kraft bis in die Gegenwart nicht verloren (zusam menfassend Goldstein 1988;Spree 1991).…”